Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available.
Macro and financial markets price events that move both prediction markets and the underlying assets: rate decisions, GDP prints, jobs reports. Current odds favour the NO side at 6%, making this a high-confidence market with 226 days to resolution, giving the order book ample time to absorb new information, backed by $927K of resting liquidity.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ↑$4.0T | 6% YES | 95% NO |
| ↑$5.0T | 3% YES | 97% NO |
| ↑$2.5T | 13% YES | 88% NO |
| ↑$1.75T | 29% YES | 71% NO |
| ↑$3.0T | 9% YES | 92% NO |
| ↑$2.0T | 18% YES | 83% NO |
| ↑$1.5T | 39% YES | 62% NO |
| ↑$1.25T | 60% YES | 40% NO |
OpenAI’s private market price is the key figure here: the market settles on whether the Nasdaq Private Market reported valuation reaches the listed threshold at any point before 31 December 2026. OpenAI last disclosed a post-money valuation of $852 billion in a funding round announced in March 2026, after a $122 billion committed-capital raise. That leaves the current hurdle entirely dependent on whether later NPM prints move materially higher, rather than on the headline fundraising number alone.
The present 12% implied probability is being formed in Polymarket’s order book, where traders are continuously pricing the chance of a qualifying NPM print before year-end. For context, private valuations can lag transaction headlines and may not move in step with announced funding rounds. Similar markets on late-stage private companies tend to stay low unless there is fresh, formally reported pricing evidence, rather than media speculation. The relevant comparison is between a single valuation publication and the public narrative around growth, not between market cap-style estimates and reported round values.
Traders should watch for any further OpenAI financing, secondary transactions, or updated NPM pricing before the year-end cutoff. The main dependency is publication timing: NPM updates trading-day data once daily at 1:00 pm ET on the following calendar day, so the last eligible print may arrive after the underlying transaction. OpenAI’s own March announcement confirms the $852 billion round, while later coverage has discussed much higher prospective valuations, but only a published NPM Price within the window will matter for settlement.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
For this market, the resolution date is 1 January 2027. A UMA proposer can submit the outcome from that moment; the two-hour dispute window closes at , and assuming no counter-claim is staked, winning USDC clears to trader balances by approximately .
If a dispute is filed inside the two-hour window, the outcome escalates to UMA token-holder voting, which extends settlement by roughly 48 hours. Because this market resolves from a publicly verifiable feed (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9c), the probability of dispute is materially lower than the overall 0.5% PolyGram baseline — most disputes occur on markets with ambiguous wording or non-public resolution sources.
Macro-finance markets resolve from the BLS, FOMC, or other official statistical releases — payout timing aligns to the release time and clears within the dispute window in over 96% of cases. Funds clear directly to your in-app USDC balance on Polygon. Withdrawals are non-custodial: send to any address you control, typical confirmation under 30 seconds, gas paid in USDC if you'd rather not hold MATIC.
Minimum order size on PolyGram is $1.00, with no maximum cap aside from available book depth. Orders route into Polymarket's on-chain CLOB on Polygon; the matching engine pairs YES buyers with NO buyers atomically — every executed trade is settled on-chain with no counterparty risk. For "Will OpenAI's valuation hit 2027 by December 31?", macro-finance markets are densest in the final hour before a release (FOMC, CPI, NFP) — book depth often exceeds $50k of liquidity at the touch in that window.
The trade ticket includes a slippage box (default 2%, configurable 0.1%-10%) that caps the worst-case entry price. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning YES (or NO) shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. With this market's current book depth ($927K of resting liquidity), a $500 order should fill with single-cent slippage at the displayed mid-price.
PolyGram charges 0% house edge — no spread mark-up, no rake on winnings, no withdrawal fees beyond network gas. The platform earns exclusively from optional features (copy-trade boosts, advanced order types, the yield vault on idle USDC); the trading surface itself is at-cost.
The mechanics for trading "Will OpenAI's valuation hit 2027 by December 31?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$267K in lifetime turnover and $927K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 10% by volume for finance contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $113K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 1 January 2027. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose. For "Will OpenAI's valuation hit 2027 by December 31?", the considerations above apply directly — Macro-finance markets are scheduled events — the binary nature of the payoff means even a small statistical surprise (e.g. CPI 0.1pp above consensus) can resolve the entire position. Trade size should reflect the headline-shock potential of the underlying release.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: