Resolution criteria on PolyGram: What will Natural Gas (NG) hit Week of May 18 2026?
Macro and financial markets price events that move both prediction markets and the underlying assets: rate decisions, GDP prints, jobs reports. Odds will populate live once the order book fills resolving today, backed by $212K of resting liquidity.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ↑ $3.80 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| ↑ $3.70 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| ↑ $3.60 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| ↑ $3.50 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| ↑ $3.40 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| ↑ $3.30 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| ↑ $3.20 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| ↓ $3.10 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
Natural gas futures are being judged against the week ended 18 May, with settlement effectively already shown in the cash market around the low-$3 area after June Henry Hub broke above $3 earlier in the week. On Polymarket, the order book is currently priced at 0% YES, so the implied probability is being formed almost entirely by the absence of bids for a qualifying print rather than by active two-way disagreement. That makes the market read more like a narrow threshold check on whether NG traded to the specified level during the settlement window than a broad view on direction.
Recent comparisons suggest traders are anchoring to a range rather than a trend. Constellation noted prompt-month gas at $3.02/MMBtu on 18 May, up from $2.91 a week earlier, while Mansfield Energy called $3.20 “huge resistance” and said only major production declines or very hot forecasts would push prices through it. EIA’s latest short-term outlook still expects Henry Hub to average about $3.50/MMBtu in 2026, but that is a medium-term forecast, not a claim that the May settlement week should reach that level.
For near-term catalysts, the key drivers are weather and storage. Barchart reported that hotter US forecasts were supporting prices, with above-average temperatures expected across the West and Upper Midwest in the final May period, and it also highlighted a bearish EIA inventory build of 101 bcf for the week ended 15 May. Traders should watch updated temperature runs, the timing of the next EIA storage print, and any LNG-related supply headlines, including terminal start-ups and export flows, because these can tighten prompt balances quickly even when injections are healthy.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://pythdata.app/explore?search=NGD. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
For this market, the resolution date is 22 May 2026. A UMA proposer can submit the outcome from that moment; the two-hour dispute window closes at , and assuming no counter-claim is staked, winning USDC clears to trader balances by approximately .
If a dispute is filed inside the two-hour window, the outcome escalates to UMA token-holder voting, which extends settlement by roughly 48 hours. Because this market resolves from a publicly verifiable feed (https://pythdata.app/explore?search=NGD), the probability of dispute is materially lower than the overall 0.5% PolyGram baseline — most disputes occur on markets with ambiguous wording or non-public resolution sources.
Macro-finance markets resolve from the BLS, FOMC, or other official statistical releases — payout timing aligns to the release time and clears within the dispute window in over 96% of cases. Funds clear directly to your in-app USDC balance on Polygon. Withdrawals are non-custodial: send to any address you control, typical confirmation under 30 seconds, gas paid in USDC if you'd rather not hold MATIC.
Minimum order size on PolyGram is $1.00, with no maximum cap aside from available book depth. Orders route into Polymarket's on-chain CLOB on Polygon; the matching engine pairs YES buyers with NO buyers atomically — every executed trade is settled on-chain with no counterparty risk. For "What will Natural Gas (NG) hit Week of May 18 2026?", macro-finance markets are densest in the final hour before a release (FOMC, CPI, NFP) — book depth often exceeds $50k of liquidity at the touch in that window.
The trade ticket includes a slippage box (default 2%, configurable 0.1%-10%) that caps the worst-case entry price. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning YES (or NO) shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. With this market's current book depth ($212K of resting liquidity), a $500 order should fill with single-cent slippage at the displayed mid-price.
PolyGram charges 0% house edge — no spread mark-up, no rake on winnings, no withdrawal fees beyond network gas. The platform earns exclusively from optional features (copy-trade boosts, advanced order types, the yield vault on idle USDC); the trading surface itself is at-cost.
The mechanics for trading "What will Natural Gas (NG) hit Week of May 18 2026?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$105K in lifetime turnover and $212K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for finance contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $77K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://pythdata.app/explore?search=NGD. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 22 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose. For "What will Natural Gas (NG) hit Week of May 18 2026?", the considerations above apply directly — Macro-finance markets are scheduled events — the binary nature of the payoff means even a small statistical surprise (e.g. CPI 0.1pp above consensus) can resolve the entire position. Trade size should reflect the headline-shock potential of the underlying release.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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