Resolution criteria on PolyGram: What will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit in May 2026?
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ↑ $180 | 8% YES | 92% NO |
| ↑ $174 | 7% YES | 93% NO |
| ↑ $168 | 8% YES | 92% NO |
| ↑ $162 | 14% YES | 87% NO |
| ↑ $156 | 19% YES | 81% NO |
| ↑ $150 | 35% YES | 65% NO |
| ↑ $144 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| ↓ $138 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
Palantir Technologies' share price reaching an unspecified target level during May 2026 is the underlying event. The current order book on Polymarket prices this outcome at 10% implied probability, reflecting substantial scepticism amongst traders that the stock will hit whatever threshold the market setter has defined. With settlement occurring after the calendar month closes on 1 June 2026, traders are pricing in roughly nine months of price movement from today.
Palantir's historical volatility provides context for interpreting this probability. The company has experienced sharp rallies following government contract wins and periods of consolidation during revenue growth phases. In comparable technology firms with government exposure, single-month price targets at the extremes of reasonable ranges typically trade between 5–15% probability, depending on distance from current spot price. Palantir's trajectory from its January 2020 direct listing through 2024 showed capacity for both 30%+ monthly gains and extended flat periods, suggesting the 10% reading reflects either a distant price level or a near-term catalyst threshold the market views as unlikely.
Traders should monitor quarterly earnings announcements, which typically drive 5–10% single-day moves, and any material contract disclosures from US government agencies or commercial clients. Recent analyst upgrades from major investment banks have occasionally preceded rallies, though these remain episodic. The settlement window's timing means May 2026 results will be known by early June, leaving minimal ambiguity at expiry. Current positioning suggests the crowd expects Palantir to trade within a narrower band than the target price implies.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.PLTR%2FUSD. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "What will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit in May 2026?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$63K in lifetime turnover and $51K of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for finance contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.
Last 24 hours alone saw $9K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.PLTR%2FUSD. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 1 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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