Finance

Trade: Micron Q3 adjusted gross margin?

Opened · Settles

Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to Micron's announced adjusted gross margin (non-GAAP, as a percentage of revenue) for the third fiscal quarter of 2026, as reported in its official company earnings materials. The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.

PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.

Liquidity
$28K
Total Volume
$3K
24h Volume
$275
Open Interest
$1K
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Market outcomes

<75% 10% YES90% NO
77.5%–80% 6% YES94% NO
80%–82.5% 28% YES72% NO
82.5%–85% 25% YES75% NO
85%+ 46% YES54% NO
75%–77.5% 4% YES96% NO

Market context

Micron Technology will report its third fiscal quarter 2026 results, with particular focus on the adjusted gross margin percentage it achieves. The memory semiconductor manufacturer's profitability metric carries significance for investors tracking the cyclical dynamics of DRAM and NAND flash pricing. The current Polymarket order book implies a 10% probability that Micron's reported adjusted gross margin will fall within the specified bracket, suggesting traders expect the company to either exceed this threshold or fall materially below it.

Micron's historical gross margins have fluctuated considerably with semiconductor cycles. During the 2022–2023 downturn, the company reported adjusted gross margins in the low-to-mid 20% range, whilst recovery periods in prior cycles saw margins expand into the 40–50% territory. The current probability assessment reflects expectations that Micron will either sustain elevated margins from the artificial intelligence-driven demand cycle or face compression if memory pricing normalises. Comparable memory manufacturers' recent earnings have shown margin resilience despite inventory corrections, providing a baseline for traders evaluating Micron's likely performance.

Traders should monitor Micron's official earnings announcement, scheduled for late June 2026, alongside broader memory market pricing trends and customer inventory levels reported in the interim. Industry reports on DRAM and NAND spot prices, typically tracked by firms like TrendForce and Gartner, will offer forward signals. Any guidance revisions or management commentary on pricing power during the company's earnings call will directly influence the likelihood of specific margin outcomes. The settlement window closes immediately after the earnings release, leaving minimal time for subsequent clarifications.

Wikipedia Context

  • Micron Technology
    Micron Technology

    Micron Technology, Inc. is an American multinational semiconductor company that manufactures computer memory and computer data storage products, including dynamic random-access memory (DRAM), flash memory, High Bandwidth Memory (HBM), and solid-state drives (SSDs). Founded in 1978 in Boise, Idaho, Micron is the only major American computer memory manufacture

  • Micron Memory Japan

    Micron Memory Japan, K.K. (Japanese: マイクロンメモリジャパン株式会社; Micron Memory Japan Kabushiki-gaisha ) is a Japanese subsidiary of Micron Technology. It was formerly known as Elpida Memory, Inc. established in 1999 that developed, designed, manufactured and sold dynamic random-access memory (DRAM) products. It was also a semiconductor foundry. With headquarters in Y

  • Micron (journal)

    Micron is a monthly peer-reviewed scientific journal in the field of microscopy. It was established in 1969 and is published by Elsevier.

  • Micron Products
    Micron Products

    Founded in 1978, Micron Products, Inc. is a contract manufacturing organization with an emphasis on precision machining and plastic injection molding.

How this market resolves

Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.

How to trade this market step by step

The mechanics for trading "Micron Q3 adjusted gross margin?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.

  1. Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
  2. Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
  3. Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
  4. Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
  5. Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
  6. Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.

How active is this market?

$3K in lifetime turnover and $28K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for finance contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.

Last 24 hours alone saw $275 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.

The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.

Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.

Key terms

YES / NO share
A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
CLOB
Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
Liquidity
USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
UMA optimistic oracle
The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
Slippage
The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
Conditional token
ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.

See the full prediction-market glossary →

Frequently asked questions

How does this market resolve?

Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.

When does this market close?

This prediction market is scheduled to close on 24 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.

How can I trade on "Micron Q3 adjusted gross margin?"?

To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.

What happens when the market resolves?

When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.

Risk and regulatory note

Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.

Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.

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