Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to the country whose candidate for Eurovision 2026 places last in the final. If no last place country is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Albania | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| Austria | 31% YES | 70% NO |
| Belgium | 6% YES | 94% NO |
| Croatia | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| Czechia | 9% YES | 91% NO |
| Estonia | 4% YES | 96% NO |
| France | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Germany | 10% YES | 90% NO |
Eurovision 2026 will take place in May, with participating nations' representatives competing in a grand final where one country will inevitably finish last. This market resolves to whichever nation receives the lowest combined score from jury voting and public televoting, with the European Broadcasting Union's official rankings determining the outcome. The settlement window closes on 16 May 2026, immediately following the final, though the market allows until 31 July 2026 for official confirmation before resolving to "Other".
Historical Eurovision results show last place typically goes to nations with smaller diaspora populations, less established musical infrastructure, or those making their debut. Countries like San Marino, Cyprus, and Montenegro have frequently occupied bottom positions in recent contests. The 1% implied probability reflected on Polymarket's order book suggests traders assess this as an extremely unlikely outcome for any specific nation to finish last—a reasonable reflection given the unpredictability of televoting and jury decisions across 37+ participating countries. Last place finishes are distributed relatively evenly across the field rather than concentrating on particular nations.
Key catalysts include the official 2026 participating countries list, expected in autumn 2025, and the semi-final draw in spring 2026, which determines which nations compete together and influences voting patterns. Recent Eurovision broadcasts have shown increasing volatility in final rankings, with unexpected jury-public splits reshaping traditional predictions. Traders should monitor whether any nations withdraw before the contest, as this would mathematically alter the last-place probability for remaining participants.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Eurovision Last Place 2026" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$89K in lifetime turnover and $590K of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for eurovision contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $8K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for around a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 16 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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