Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the Valorant Upper bracket quarterfinal 4 match between Karmine Corp and Eternal Fire in the Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier Stage 2, initially scheduled for May 22 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Karmine Corp" if Karmine Corp win the match against Eternal Fire. This market will resolve to "Eternal Fire" if Eternal Fire win the match against Karmine Corp. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
Real-money prediction markets aggregate live odds from thousands of traders, surfacing a sharper probability than any single forecast. Current odds favour the NO side at 49%, making this a coinflip market resolving today, backed by $125K of resting liquidity.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Match Winner | 49% YES | 52% NO |
| Map 1 Winner | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Map 2 Winner | 14% YES | 87% NO |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Map Handicap: EF (-1.5) vs Karmine Corp (+1.5) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Karmine Corp and Eternal Fire are due to meet in a best-of-three at the Esports World Cup 2026 EMEA Qualifier Stage 2, with the market currently pricing Karmine Corp at 43% on the order book. That implied probability is being formed from live bids and offers rather than a fixed bookmaker line, so it can move quickly if map veto information, line-up news or schedule changes emerge before first map. The present price leaves Eternal Fire as the slight market favourite, which is consistent with the way these esports brackets often trade when the better recent match result belongs to the lower-priced side.
Recent results give Eternal Fire some support: VLR.gg lists the teams’ upper quarter-final meeting in this qualifier, and the available scoreline snippets indicate Eternal Fire won the series 2-0. Bovada’s match listing also reflects Eternal Fire as the shorter price on the series, with 2-0 and 0-2 outcomes both offered around +235 and +215 respectively. For a trader, the key point is that BO3 markets can reprice sharply on a single veto or roster update, but they are less sensitive than map-specific contracts to small in-game swings once the series starts.
Watch for confirmation that the match is played within the settlement window and at the stated schedule, since any cancellation, unresolved delay beyond seven days, or non-completion can push the contract towards the 50-50 fallback. Liquipedia shows the EMEA qualifier running from 11 to 31 May, which means the match sits inside an active tournament window rather than a standalone fixture. If there is a reschedule, the order book will usually re-price around the new start time and any changed bracket context.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://vlr.gg. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
For this market, the resolution date is 22 May 2026. A UMA proposer can submit the outcome from that moment; the two-hour dispute window closes at , and assuming no counter-claim is staked, winning USDC clears to trader balances by approximately .
If a dispute is filed inside the two-hour window, the outcome escalates to UMA token-holder voting, which extends settlement by roughly 48 hours. Because this market resolves from a publicly verifiable feed (https://vlr.gg), the probability of dispute is materially lower than the overall 0.5% PolyGram baseline — most disputes occur on markets with ambiguous wording or non-public resolution sources.
Withdrawal pace from your PolyGram balance is non-custodial and immediate — once payout clears, funds are yours to send to any Polygon wallet you control. Funds clear directly to your in-app USDC balance on Polygon. Withdrawals are non-custodial: send to any address you control, typical confirmation under 30 seconds, gas paid in USDC if you'd rather not hold MATIC.
Minimum order size on PolyGram is $1.00, with no maximum cap aside from available book depth. Orders route into Polymarket's on-chain CLOB on Polygon; the matching engine pairs YES buyers with NO buyers atomically — every executed trade is settled on-chain with no counterparty risk. For "Valorant: Karmine Corp vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier Stage 2", order-book behaviour for this market reflects the underlying volatility of the outcome — patient limit orders typically fill closer to mid than market orders.
The trade ticket includes a slippage box (default 2%, configurable 0.1%-10%) that caps the worst-case entry price. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning YES (or NO) shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. With this market's current book depth ($125K of resting liquidity), a $500 order should fill with single-cent slippage at the displayed mid-price.
PolyGram charges 0% house edge — no spread mark-up, no rake on winnings, no withdrawal fees beyond network gas. The platform earns exclusively from optional features (copy-trade boosts, advanced order types, the yield vault on idle USDC); the trading surface itself is at-cost.
The mechanics for trading "Valorant: Karmine Corp vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier Stage 2" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$126K in lifetime turnover and $125K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $126K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://vlr.gg. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 22 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose. For "Valorant: Karmine Corp vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier Stage 2", the considerations above apply directly — Trade size should reflect the binary nature of the payoff: even a 70% probability event resolves NO 30% of the time, so any single position can lose 100% of staked capital.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: