Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the Valorant Lower bracket quarterfinal 2 match between Eternal Fire and Gentle Mates in the VCT EMEA Playoffs, initially scheduled for May 10 at 2:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "Eternal Fire" if Eternal Fire win the match against Gentle Mates. This market will resolve to "Gentle Mates" if Gentle Mates win the match against Eternal Fire. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Match Winner | 48% YES | 53% NO |
| Map 1 Winner | 46% YES | 54% NO |
| Map 2 Winner | 47% YES | 53% NO |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 48% YES | 53% NO |
| Map Handicap: GM (-1.5) vs Eternal Fire (+1.5) | 28% YES | 72% NO |
Eternal Fire and Gentle Mates will contest a lower bracket quarterfinal in the Valorant Champions Tour EMEA Playoffs on 10 May at 2:00PM ET. The match is a best-of-three series, with the winner advancing and the loser eliminated from the tournament. The current order book on Polymarket implies a 48% probability for Eternal Fire victory, suggesting near-parity in trader assessment despite Eternal Fire's established standing as a Turkish powerhouse within European Valorant competition.
Eternal Fire have consistently ranked among EMEA's top teams across multiple VCT seasons, whilst Gentle Mates represent a lower-seeded challenger. Historical precedent shows that seeding and regional strength correlate meaningfully in VCT lower bracket matches, though upsets occur when preparation advantages or meta shifts favour the underdog. The current 48% probability for Eternal Fire reflects genuine uncertainty rather than confidence in the favourite, possibly indicating trader concern about form, roster changes, or recent tournament performance.
Traders should monitor roster confirmations and any last-minute lineup announcements before the scheduled start time. Schedule adherence matters considerably given the settlement window's seven-day buffer—delays beyond 12 May without completion trigger a 50-50 resolution. Recent VCT EMEA matches have proceeded on schedule, though technical issues or unforeseen circumstances remain possible. Scrim results and public team statements in the days preceding the match may shift the order book materially, particularly if either team signals significant preparation concerns or strategic shifts.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.twitch.tv/valorant_emea. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Valorant: Eternal Fire vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - VCT EMEA Playoffs" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$88K in lifetime turnover and $101K of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $88K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.twitch.tv/valorant_emea. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 11 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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