Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the LoL match between Team Orange Gaming and Kaufland Hangry Knights in the Prime League 1st Division Group A, initially scheduled for May 11 at 1:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "Team Orange Gaming" if Team Orange Gaming win the match against Kaufland Hangry Knights. This market will resolve to "Kaufland Hangry Knights" if Kaufland Hangry Knights win the match against Team Orange Gaming. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 1% YES | 100% NO |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 1% YES | 100% NO |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 1% YES | 100% NO |
Team Orange Gaming face Kaufland Hangry Knights in a best-of-three League of Legends match within the Prime League 1st Division Group A on 11 May 2026. The settlement window closes at 23:00 UTC that same day, with the match scheduled for 18:00 UTC (1:00 PM ET). Polymarket's order book currently implies a 63% probability of Team Orange Gaming victory, reflecting moderate confidence in the favourites.
Prime League matches at this tier typically feature established German and European rosters with consistent performance records. Historical resolution data from comparable regional League competitions shows that seeding and regular-season standing correlate strongly with playoff outcomes, though upsets occur in roughly 25–30% of matchups when the implied probability sits between 60–70%. The current 63% probability suggests the market views this as a moderately favourable matchup for Team Orange rather than a dominant favourite scenario.
Key variables for traders include roster changes or injury announcements in the days preceding 11 May, which could shift the probability meaningfully if either team loses a key player. The Prime League's official schedule and any postponement notices will be critical; matches delayed beyond seven days without resolution trigger a 50-50 settlement. Recent esports scheduling has been reliable, but technical issues or unforeseen circumstances remain possible. Monitor official Prime League communications and team social media for any last-minute roster or scheduling updates that could affect the match outcome.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.twitch.tv/primeleague. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "LoL: Team Orange Gaming vs Kaufland Hangry Knights (BO3) - Prime League 1st Division Group A" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$236K in lifetime turnover and $2.3M of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 10% by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $229K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.twitch.tv/primeleague. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 11 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: