Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the LoL Lower bracket quarterfinal 1 match between TLN Pirates and Vitality.Bee in the LFL Playoffs, initially scheduled for May 21 at 2:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "TLN Pirates" if TLN Pirates win the match against Vitality.Bee. This market will resolve to "Vitality.Bee" if Vitality.Bee win the match against TLN Pirates. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
Real-money prediction markets aggregate live odds from thousands of traders, surfacing a sharper probability than any single forecast. Odds will populate live once the order book fills resolving today, backed by $1.2M of resting liquidity.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| First Blood in Game 1? | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 90% YES | 10% NO |
| Match Winner | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Game 1 Winner | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Game 2 Winner | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Game Handicap: TLNP (-1.5) vs Vitality.Bee (+1.5) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 0% YES | 100% NO |
TLN Pirates are due to face Vitality.Bee in the LFL play-offs lower-bracket quarter-final, a best-of-three listed for 21 May. The market is pricing a near-certainty outcome, with the crowd-implied probability at 100% YES. On Polymarket, that figure is formed from the live order book rather than a fixed opinion: at this stage, the quoted price reflects the marginal balance of bids and asks, plus any traders leaning on match timing, team strength, and settlement risk before the series is actually completed.
Comparable recent meetings have tended to favour TLN Pirates. Search results show TLN Pirates beat Vitality.Bee 1–0 in the LFL Invitational week 3, while Strafe lists TLN Pirates as having won all three prior head-to-heads. That sort of record matters in a BO3, because it informs how traders interpret whether the market is treating TLN Pirates as a clear favourite, or whether the current price is being distorted by low liquidity and one-sided positioning rather than a fresh reassessment of match quality.
The main catalysts are straightforward: whether the series starts on time, whether the official LFL schedule changes, and whether either team fields a different roster or substitute arrangement from the one used in recent match history. Robinhood’s market page still shows the event live and scheduled for 21 May, which reduces but does not eliminate settlement uncertainty. Traders should also watch for any late confirmation from league channels or match pages, since a delay beyond seven days, cancellation, or an unfinished series could force the market into a 50-50 resolution under the stated rules.
This market settles from the official outcome published at http://www.twitch.tv/otplol_. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
For this market, the resolution date is 22 May 2026. A UMA proposer can submit the outcome from that moment; the two-hour dispute window closes at , and assuming no counter-claim is staked, winning USDC clears to trader balances by approximately .
If a dispute is filed inside the two-hour window, the outcome escalates to UMA token-holder voting, which extends settlement by roughly 48 hours. Because this market resolves from a publicly verifiable feed (http://www.twitch.tv/otplol_), the probability of dispute is materially lower than the overall 0.5% PolyGram baseline — most disputes occur on markets with ambiguous wording or non-public resolution sources.
Withdrawal pace from your PolyGram balance is non-custodial and immediate — once payout clears, funds are yours to send to any Polygon wallet you control. Funds clear directly to your in-app USDC balance on Polygon. Withdrawals are non-custodial: send to any address you control, typical confirmation under 30 seconds, gas paid in USDC if you'd rather not hold MATIC.
Minimum order size on PolyGram is $1.00, with no maximum cap aside from available book depth. Orders route into Polymarket's on-chain CLOB on Polygon; the matching engine pairs YES buyers with NO buyers atomically — every executed trade is settled on-chain with no counterparty risk. For "LoL: TLN Pirates vs Vitality.Bee (BO3) - LFL Playoffs", order-book behaviour for this market reflects the underlying volatility of the outcome — patient limit orders typically fill closer to mid than market orders.
The trade ticket includes a slippage box (default 2%, configurable 0.1%-10%) that caps the worst-case entry price. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning YES (or NO) shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. With this market's current book depth ($1.2M of resting liquidity), a $500 order should fill with single-cent slippage at the displayed mid-price.
PolyGram charges 0% house edge — no spread mark-up, no rake on winnings, no withdrawal fees beyond network gas. The platform earns exclusively from optional features (copy-trade boosts, advanced order types, the yield vault on idle USDC); the trading surface itself is at-cost.
The mechanics for trading "LoL: TLN Pirates vs Vitality.Bee (BO3) - LFL Playoffs" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$191K in lifetime turnover and $1.2M of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 10% by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $191K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from http://www.twitch.tv/otplol_. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 22 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose. For "LoL: TLN Pirates vs Vitality.Bee (BO3) - LFL Playoffs", the considerations above apply directly — Trade size should reflect the binary nature of the payoff: even a 70% probability event resolves NO 30% of the time, so any single position can lose 100% of staked capital.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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