Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the winner of the North American Challengers League (NACL) 2026 Spring season. If the 2026 Spring season is postponed after June 12, 2026 11:59 PM ET, canceled, or a winner has not been declared in this timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other". If multiple teams are declared winner, this market will resolve in favor of the team whose listed team name comes first alphabetically. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Riot Games (https://lolesports.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Conviction | 8% YES | 92% NO |
| Winthrop University | 10% YES | 91% NO |
| Maryville University | 24% YES | 77% NO |
| Citadel Gaming | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Dorado Gaming | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| NRG | 26% YES | 74% NO |
| CCG Esports | 20% YES | 80% NO |
| Blue Otter | 0% YES | 100% NO |
The North American Challengers League 2026 Spring season will determine which team claims the regional title in Riot Games' second-tier League of Legends competition. The market currently prices a YES resolution at 8%, reflecting the order book's assessment that a single, clearly-declared winner will emerge by the June 5 settlement deadline. This probability accounts for the possibility of postponement, cancellation, or administrative complications that would trigger an "Other" resolution instead.
Historical precedent suggests NACL seasons typically conclude on schedule without major disruptions. The 2025 NACL Spring season completed without significant delays, and Riot Games has maintained consistent competitive calendars across regional leagues. However, the 8% probability reflects genuine tail risks: unforeseen circumstances affecting multiple teams, scheduling conflicts with international events, or disputes over final standings. The alphabetical tiebreaker clause adds minor complexity but rarely materialises in practice.
Traders should monitor Riot Games' official announcements regarding the 2026 Spring schedule, team roster confirmations, and any statements about league format changes. The settlement window extends to June 5, but the actual deadline for winner declaration is June 12 at 23:59 ET, providing a two-week buffer. Key dependencies include team participation confirmations and whether Riot maintains its typical spring-to-summer schedule cadence. Any announcement of format changes, venue issues, or significant roster instability could shift the probability of non-resolution upwards.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "NACL 2026 Spring Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$8K in lifetime turnover and $2K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $240 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for around a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 5 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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