Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the Dota 2 Lower bracket semifinal match between PlayTime and Nigma Galaxy in the 1win Essence Playoffs, initially scheduled for May 10 at 2:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "PlayTime" if PlayTime win the match against Nigma Galaxy. This market will resolve to "Nigma Galaxy" if Nigma Galaxy win the match against PlayTime. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Total Kills Over/Under 46.5 in Game 1? | 90% YES | 10% NO |
| Total Kills Over/Under 47.5 in Game 1? | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Total Kills Over/Under 65.5 in Game 1? | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Total Kills Over/Under 67.5 in Game 1? | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Total Kills Over/Under 64.5 in Game 1? | 90% YES | 10% NO |
| Total Kills Over/Under 66.5 in Game 1? | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Total Kills Over/Under 69.5 in Game 1? | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Total Kills Over/Under 68.5 in Game 1? | 0% YES | 100% NO |
PlayTime and Nigma Galaxy are set to compete in the lower bracket semifinal of the 1win Essence Playoffs, a Dota 2 tournament, with the match scheduled for 10 May at 2:00PM ET. The winner advances further in the playoffs whilst the loser is eliminated. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 50–50 split, indicating traders assess both teams as evenly matched on the available information.
Lower bracket semifinals in Dota 2 tournaments typically feature teams with uneven preparation levels—one side may have just lost a prior match and faces fatigue, whilst the other enters fresh. Nigma Galaxy, a historically established organisation, has competed at multiple International events and maintains roster stability, whereas PlayTime's recent form and roster composition determine their competitive standing. Historical precedent suggests that teams entering lower bracket matches from a loss often struggle with momentum, though best-of-three formats allow for tactical adjustment between games.
Traders should monitor roster confirmations and any last-minute substitutions, which remain common in regional Dota 2 circuits. Schedule adherence is material—the settlement window closes 11 May at 00:20 UTC, allowing a seven-day grace period before forced 50–50 resolution. Patch changes or server issues affecting the tournament infrastructure could delay proceedings. Recent tournament coverage from esports outlets tracking the 1win Essence Playoffs will provide fixture updates and team performance data as the scheduled date approaches.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.twitch.tv/lakelzth. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Dota 2: PlayTime vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - 1win Essence Playoffs" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$509K in lifetime turnover and $204K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $509K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.twitch.tv/lakelzth. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 11 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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