Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the Dota 2 Upper bracket quarterfinal 3 match between Nigma Galaxy and PlayTime in the 1win Essence Playoffs, initially scheduled for May 8 at 8:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Nigma Galaxy" if Nigma Galaxy win the match against PlayTime. This market will resolve to "PlayTime" if PlayTime win the match against Nigma Galaxy. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Total Kills Over/Under 54.5 in Game 1? | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Game Handicap: PlayTime (-1.5) vs Nigma Galaxy (+1.5) | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Total Kills Over/Under 59.5 in Game 1? | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Total Kills Over/Under 58.5 in Game 1? | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Total Kills Over/Under 61.5 in Game 1? | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Total Kills Over/Under 63.5 in Game 1? | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Total Kills Over/Under 62.5 in Game 1? | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Total Kills Over/Under 60.5 in Game 1? | 100% YES | 0% NO |
Nigma Galaxy face PlayTime in an upper bracket quarterfinal of the 1win Essence Playoffs, a best-of-three Dota 2 match scheduled for 8 May at 8:00 AM ET. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 91% implied probability favouring Nigma Galaxy, indicating strong confidence in their advancement. This pricing emerges from real-time trading activity where the spread between bid and ask has tightened around the YES side, suggesting consensus among market participants.
Nigma Galaxy rank considerably higher in competitive Dota 2 standings than PlayTime, with a track record of consistent top-eight finishes in major tournaments over the past eighteen months. PlayTime, by contrast, has competed primarily in regional qualifiers and secondary circuits. Historical matchups between teams of this calibre differential—where the higher-seeded squad faces a lower-ranked opponent in knockout play—settle in the favoured team's direction roughly 85–92% of the time, depending on the specific tournament tier and patch state. The current 91% probability aligns closely with this empirical baseline.
Traders should monitor official tournament communications regarding any schedule shifts or roster changes through to the settlement window closing on 8 May at 18:00 UTC. The Dota 2 competitive calendar has experienced occasional delays due to technical issues or unforeseen circumstances, though cancellations remain rare. Any announcement of substitutions or withdrawal from either squad would materially alter the order book. The match begins within the settlement window, so completion risk is minimal provided the tournament proceeds as scheduled.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.twitch.tv/godota2bets. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs PlayTime (BO3) - 1win Essence Playoffs" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$517K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $510K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.twitch.tv/godota2bets. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 8 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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