Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the Dota 2 Upper bracket final match between Team Lynx and Two Move in the European Pro League Playoffs, initially scheduled for May 11 at 8:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Team Lynx" if Team Lynx win the match against Two Move. This market will resolve to "Two Move" if Two Move win the match against Team Lynx. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Game 1 Winner | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Game 2 Winner | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Game Handicap: LYNX (-1.5) vs Two Move (+1.5) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Ends in Daytime | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Team Lynx and Two Move will contest the upper bracket final of the European Pro League Dota 2 playoffs in a best-of-three format on 11 May at 08:00 ET. The winner advances directly to the grand final, whilst the loser drops to the lower bracket. Current order book activity on Polymarket reflects a 50-50 split, indicating traders view both squads as evenly matched at present pricing.
European Dota 2 competitive depth has narrowed considerably over the past eighteen months, with traditional powerhouses fragmenting and roster instability affecting predictability. Both Team Lynx and Two Move have demonstrated inconsistent form through the regular season, with neither establishing clear dominance. Historical precedent from prior EPL playoffs shows that upper bracket finals often feature tightly contested series when seeding reflects similar strength; the 50-50 probability aligns with this pattern rather than signalling uncertainty about match completion.
Traders should monitor roster confirmations and scrim results in the days preceding the match, as last-minute substitutions or injury announcements could shift the probability meaningfully. The EPL's scheduling reliability has been solid this season, reducing the risk of cancellation or extended delays beyond the seven-day threshold. Patch changes to Dota 2 between now and 11 May may favour one team's hero pool over the other, though the two-week window provides adequate preparation time for both sides.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://kick.com/epldota_en2. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Dota 2: Team Lynx vs Two Move (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$27K in lifetime turnover and $884K of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $27K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://kick.com/epldota_en2. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 11 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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