Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the Dota 2 Lower Bracket Semifinal match between Carstensz and REKONIX in the Esports World Cup Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier Playoffs, initially scheduled for June 4 at 8:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Carstensz" if Carstensz win the match against REKONIX. This market will resolve to "REKONIX" if REKONIX win the match against Carstensz. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Game 1 Winner | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Game 2 Winner | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Match Winner | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Game Handicap: RNX (-1.5) vs Carstensz (+1.5) | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Total Kills Over/Under 52.5 in Game 1? | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Total Kills Over/Under 48.5 in Game 1? | 100% YES | 0% NO |
The Esports World Cup Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier Playoffs will determine which teams advance to the main event, with Carstensz facing REKONIX in a lower bracket semifinal best-of-three series scheduled for 4 June at 08:00 ET. This qualifier represents a significant pathway for Southeast Asian Dota 2 organisations to secure spots in the broader Esports World Cup competition, making advancement stakes material for both squads.
The current 0% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects minimal trading activity rather than certainty about the outcome. Southeast Asian Dota 2 qualifiers typically attract limited liquidity compared to major league matches, and early-stage prediction markets on regional esports often show extreme probabilities simply due to sparse order book depth. Historical precedent suggests these probabilities shift materially once teams publish final rosters, confirm player availability, or release recent scrim results—information that typically emerges within 48 hours of match time.
Traders should monitor several catalysts before settlement: official confirmation that both teams field their standard lineups without last-minute substitutions, any roster announcements from either organisation, and recent tournament results or scrim outcomes that might indicate form. The match's scheduled timing on 4 June at 08:00 ET places it during Southeast Asian business hours, reducing scheduling risk. The settlement window closes at 18:00 ET the same day, allowing approximately ten hours for the match to complete, though technical delays or administrative issues could trigger the 50-50 tiebreaker clause if play extends beyond seven days without resolution.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.twitch.tv/cispapa. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Dota 2: Carstensz vs REKONIX (BO3) - Esports World Cup Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier Playoffs" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$72K in lifetime turnover and $156K of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $72K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.twitch.tv/cispapa. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 4 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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