Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the Counter-Strike Round 3 match between Liquid and MIBR in the IEM Cologne Major Stage 1, initially scheduled for June 3 at 9:30AM ET. This market will resolve to "Liquid" if Liquid win the match against MIBR. This market will resolve to "MIBR" if MIBR win the match against Liquid. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Match Winner | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 90% YES | 10% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Rounds | 100% YES | 0% NO |
Liquid and MIBR will meet in a best-of-one match during Round 3 of the IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 on 3 June 2026, with the fixture scheduled for 09:30 ET. The current order book on Polymarket shows 0% implied probability for a Liquid victory, reflecting either exceptionally strong market conviction towards MIBR or a liquidity void in the YES side of the book. Given the BO1 format and the stakes of a Major-stage match, this extreme probability warrants scrutiny against recent team performance and historical precedent.
Liquid and MIBR have competed at the highest levels of competitive Counter-Strike for years, though their relative strength has fluctuated considerably. MIBR has shown stronger form in recent international tournaments, whilst Liquid has experienced roster instability and inconsistent results throughout 2025 and early 2026. In BO1 matches specifically, variance is elevated; upsets occur regularly even when one team holds a clear skill advantage. The 0% reading suggests either the market has priced in a Liquid withdrawal or forfeiture, or the book lacks sufficient depth to reflect genuine uncertainty in a single-map encounter.
Traders should monitor official ESL announcements regarding player availability and any last-minute roster changes before the settlement window closes on 3 June at 19:40 UTC. Fixture delays beyond seven days without resolution would trigger a 50-50 settlement. Recent team news from HLTV or ESL's official channels will clarify whether either side faces unexpected complications that might affect participation or competitive readiness.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.twitch.tv/ESLCS. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Counter-Strike: Liquid vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$1.1M in lifetime turnover and $393K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $1.1M in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.twitch.tv/ESLCS. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 3 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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