Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the Counter-Strike Round 3 match between PARIVISION and Aurora Gaming in the PGL Astana Group Stage, initially scheduled for May 11 at 1:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "PARIVISION" if PARIVISION win the match against Aurora Gaming. This market will resolve to "Aurora Gaming" if Aurora Gaming win the match against PARIVISION. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs PARIVISION (+1.5) | 27% YES | 73% NO |
| Match Winner | 48% YES | 53% NO |
| Map 1 Winner | 47% YES | 54% NO |
| Map 2 Winner | 51% YES | 50% NO |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 48% YES | 53% NO |
| Map Handicap: PRV (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) | 23% YES | 78% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Rounds | 50% YES | 50% NO |
PARIVISION face Aurora Gaming in a Counter-Strike best-of-three match during the PGL Astana Group Stage, scheduled for 11 May at 1:00 AM ET. The current order book on Polymarket implies a 28% probability of PARIVISION victory, reflecting market participants' assessment that Aurora Gaming enters as the favoured side. This probability has formed through active trading on the platform's order book, where the spread between bid and ask prices stabilises around this level.
The 28% implied probability positions PARIVISION as significant underdogs, a positioning that warrants context from comparable Tier-2 Counter-Strike matchups. Aurora Gaming has demonstrated consistency in regional play, whilst PARIVISION's recent form and head-to-head record against similar-ranked opposition typically yields win rates in the 25–35% range when facing established regional competitors. PGL events historically favour teams with established infrastructure and recent LAN experience, factors that generally advantage Aurora in this fixture.
Traders should monitor team roster confirmations and any last-minute lineup changes in the days preceding the match, as Counter-Strike rosters occasionally shift before group-stage play. Fixture scheduling announcements from PGL's official channels will confirm whether the 1:00 AM ET start time holds, as delays have occasionally affected group-stage matches. Additionally, watch for any public statements regarding preparation time or recent scrim results, which can shift market sentiment if either team signals unexpected form. The settlement window closes at 11:00 AM ET on 11 May, allowing approximately ten hours post-match for result confirmation.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.twitch.tv/PGL. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$119K in lifetime turnover and $256K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $119K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.twitch.tv/PGL. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 11 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: