Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the Counter-Strike Round 3 match between TheMongolz and G2 in the PGL Astana Group Stage, initially scheduled for May 11 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "TheMongolz" if TheMongolz win the match against G2. This market will resolve to "G2" if G2 win the match against TheMongolz. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Match Winner | 43% YES | 57% NO |
| Map 1 Winner | 43% YES | 57% NO |
| Map 2 Winner | 47% YES | 54% NO |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 48% YES | 53% NO |
| Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs TheMongolz (+1.5) | 32% YES | 69% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Rounds | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% YES | 50% NO |
TheMongolz, the Mongolian esports organisation, face G2 Esports in a Counter-Strike 2 best-of-three match during the PGL Astana Group Stage, scheduled for 11 May 2026 at 04:00 ET. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 43% implied probability for TheMongolz victory, pricing G2 as favourites at 57%. This probability distribution suggests market participants view G2 as the stronger side, though TheMongolz retain meaningful chances in what remains a competitive matchup at the group stage level.
TheMongolz have established themselves as a credible international competitor, particularly in regional tournaments, though they typically face steeper odds against established European powerhouses like G2. G2's roster has consistently performed at top-tier events, with recent placements demonstrating their capacity to compete against elite opposition. Historical group stage matches between teams of comparable standing suggest probabilities in the 40–55% range for the underdog, which aligns with current market pricing. The 43% figure reflects neither a dismissal of TheMongolz nor excessive confidence in G2, positioning this as a genuinely competitive fixture.
Traders should monitor roster confirmations and any last-minute lineup changes in the days preceding the match, as substitutions can materially shift competitive balance. Schedule adherence matters given the settlement window's seven-day buffer; any significant delay beyond 18 May would trigger a 50-50 resolution. Recent PGL events have maintained reliable scheduling, reducing forfeit risk. Team form leading into the tournament, particularly any recent LAN results or roster adjustments, will provide concrete data points for reassessing the current probability before the match begins.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.twitch.tv/PGL. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$72K in lifetime turnover and $174K of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $72K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.twitch.tv/PGL. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 11 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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