Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the Counter-Strike Lower bracket semifinal 2 match between M80 and MOUZ in the CS Asia Championships Group A, initially scheduled for May 21 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "M80" if M80 win the match against MOUZ. This market will resolve to "MOUZ" if MOUZ win the match against M80. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins.
Real-money prediction markets aggregate live odds from thousands of traders, surfacing a sharper probability than any single forecast. Current odds favour the NO side at 36%, making this a coinflip market resolving today, backed by $355K of resting liquidity.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Match Winner | 36% YES | 64% NO |
| Map 1 Winner | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Map 2 Winner | 97% YES | 4% NO |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 88% YES | 13% NO |
| Map Handicap: MOUZ (-1.5) vs M80 (+1.5) | 5% YES | 95% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 90% YES | 10% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Rounds | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 51% YES | 50% NO |
M80 face MOUZ in a best-of-three lower-bracket semi-final at the CS Asia Championships in Shanghai, with the winner moving on and the loser eliminated. The market currently prices M80 at 14% implied probability, and that figure is being set continuously by Polymarket’s order book rather than a single fixed forecast, so it reflects live liquidity, recent trades, and how buyers and sellers are leaning today.
For context, MOUZ would normally be expected to carry the stronger baseline in a series like this given their longer-established tier-one LAN record and broader map pool, while M80 have already shown they can be competitive in this event by reaching the lower-bracket stage after earlier group action. Comparable markets around this tournament have tended to move sharply on results and bracket position rather than on reputation alone: Falcons, for example, were marked up after beating BC.Game and then sweeping M80 in group play, which tightened expectations around their path. The current 14% therefore reads as an underdog price for M80 rather than a view that the series is unwinnable.
Traders should watch for confirmation of the match start time and any schedule changes, because the settlement window closes later today at 15:30 UTC and a delay beyond seven days would force a 50-50 outcome. Recent reporting from Field Level Media noted Falcons advancing in Shanghai after defeating BC.Game and then M80, underscoring that results in this event are already reshaping bracket paths and market expectations. Any roster news, map veto information, or late substitution would also matter, as a best-of-three in CS2 is often decided by veto quality as much as raw team strength.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.twitch.tv/pgl. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
For this market, the resolution date is 21 May 2026. A UMA proposer can submit the outcome from that moment; the two-hour dispute window closes at , and assuming no counter-claim is staked, winning USDC clears to trader balances by approximately .
If a dispute is filed inside the two-hour window, the outcome escalates to UMA token-holder voting, which extends settlement by roughly 48 hours. Because this market resolves from a publicly verifiable feed (https://www.twitch.tv/pgl), the probability of dispute is materially lower than the overall 0.5% PolyGram baseline — most disputes occur on markets with ambiguous wording or non-public resolution sources.
Withdrawal pace from your PolyGram balance is non-custodial and immediate — once payout clears, funds are yours to send to any Polygon wallet you control. Funds clear directly to your in-app USDC balance on Polygon. Withdrawals are non-custodial: send to any address you control, typical confirmation under 30 seconds, gas paid in USDC if you'd rather not hold MATIC.
Minimum order size on PolyGram is $1.00, with no maximum cap aside from available book depth. Orders route into Polymarket's on-chain CLOB on Polygon; the matching engine pairs YES buyers with NO buyers atomically — every executed trade is settled on-chain with no counterparty risk. For "Counter-Strike: M80 vs MOUZ (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group A", order-book behaviour for this market reflects the underlying volatility of the outcome — patient limit orders typically fill closer to mid than market orders.
The trade ticket includes a slippage box (default 2%, configurable 0.1%-10%) that caps the worst-case entry price. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning YES (or NO) shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. With this market's current book depth ($355K of resting liquidity), a $500 order should fill with single-cent slippage at the displayed mid-price.
PolyGram charges 0% house edge — no spread mark-up, no rake on winnings, no withdrawal fees beyond network gas. The platform earns exclusively from optional features (copy-trade boosts, advanced order types, the yield vault on idle USDC); the trading surface itself is at-cost.
The mechanics for trading "Counter-Strike: M80 vs MOUZ (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group A" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$490K in lifetime turnover and $355K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $490K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.twitch.tv/pgl. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 21 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose. For "Counter-Strike: M80 vs MOUZ (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group A", the considerations above apply directly — Trade size should reflect the binary nature of the payoff: even a 70% probability event resolves NO 30% of the time, so any single position can lose 100% of staked capital.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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