Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the Counter-Strike Lower bracket final match between GamerLegion and Astralis in the IEM Atlanta Group B, initially scheduled for May 13 at 7:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "GamerLegion" if GamerLegion win the match against Astralis. This market will resolve to "Astralis" if Astralis win the match against GamerLegion. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Match Winner | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Map 1 Winner | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Map 2 Winner | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Map Handicap: AST (-1.5) vs GamerLegion (+1.5) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Rounds | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% YES | 51% NO |
GamerLegion face Astralis in the lower bracket final of IEM Atlanta's Group B, a best-of-three Counter-Strike match scheduled for 13 May at 7:00 PM ET. The 98% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects substantial confidence in GamerLegion's victory, with the spread between backing and laying positions tight enough to suggest consensus among active traders. The settlement window extends to 14 May at 05:00 UTC, allowing a full day beyond the scheduled match time for completion and confirmation.
GamerLegion's current standing relative to Astralis frames the probability assessment. Astralis, despite their historical dominance in Counter-Strike, have experienced roster instability and inconsistent results in 2024–2025, whilst GamerLegion have demonstrated stronger recent form in tier-one competition. The 98% probability suggests traders view this as a heavily favoured matchup rather than a toss-up, positioning GamerLegion as clear favourites based on current squad composition and recent tournament performance.
Key variables for traders monitoring this market include last-minute roster changes, technical issues affecting either team's preparation, or scheduling delays that might push the match beyond the seven-day threshold triggering a 50-50 resolution. IEM's track record for on-time execution is generally reliable, though unforeseen circumstances—equipment failures, visa complications, or health issues—remain possible. Any official announcements from ESL or team statements regarding availability should be monitored closely before settlement.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.twitch.tv/ESLCS. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Astralis (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$430K in lifetime turnover and $1.3M of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 10% by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $430K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.twitch.tv/ESLCS. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 14 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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