Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the Counter-Strike Round 1 match between Aurora Gaming and Heroic in the PGL Astana Group Stage, initially scheduled for May 9 at 1:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Aurora Gaming" if Aurora Gaming win the match against Heroic. This market will resolve to "Heroic" if Heroic win the match against Aurora Gaming. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Odd/Even Total Rounds | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Rounds | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Match Winner | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Map 1 Winner | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Map 2 Winner | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs Heroic (+1.5) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Aurora Gaming and Heroic will face off in a best-of-three Counter-Strike match during the PGL Astana Group Stage on 9 May 2026 at 01:00 ET. The current order book on Polymarket shows the market priced at 100% YES, reflecting either an extremely lopsided expectation favouring Aurora Gaming or potential illiquidity in the book. At this price, any YES position carries zero margin for error, whilst NO positions offer asymmetric payoff should Heroic perform unexpectedly.
Heroic has historically been a top-tier European Counter-Strike outfit, regularly competing in tier-one tournaments, whilst Aurora Gaming represents a lower-ranked squad. In comparable group-stage matchups between established and emerging teams at major tournaments, the established side typically commands 70–85% implied probability depending on recent form and roster stability. A 100% price suggests either the market has priced in Aurora Gaming's withdrawal or cancellation risk as negligible, or that liquidity is too shallow to reflect true uncertainty.
Traders should monitor roster announcements from both organisations in the weeks preceding the event, as last-minute substitutions or visa issues have historically disrupted scheduled matches. The PGL Astana tournament schedule and any official postponement notices will be critical; the settlement window allows for a 50-50 resolution if the match is delayed beyond seven days without completion. Recent esports tournament disruptions have occasionally stemmed from travel logistics or unforeseen circumstances, making pre-event confirmations essential for assessing whether the current extreme pricing reflects genuine confidence or market dysfunction.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.twitch.tv/PGL. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Heroic (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$748K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $739K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.twitch.tv/PGL. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 9 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: