Trade: Eric Adams charged by December 31?

Market context

Eric Adams, New York City's mayor since January 2022, faces potential federal criminal charges relating to campaign finance violations and alleged improper dealings with Turkish officials. The question centres on whether formal indictment occurs before the end of 2026, with the market currently pricing a 19% probability of charges being filed within that window.

Federal investigations into Adams have been ongoing since 2021, predating his mayoral tenure. The Southern District of New York has been the primary investigating body. Comparable cases involving municipal officials—such as those against former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie's associates or Chicago's Rod Blagojevich—typically see indictments within 18–36 months of investigation commencement. Adams' investigation has now extended beyond two years without formal charges, suggesting either complexity in the case or potential resolution through other means. The relatively low crowd-implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects this extended timeline without charges materialising.

Key catalysts for traders to monitor include statements from the US Attorney's Office for the Southern District of New York, any scheduled court filings, and developments in parallel state-level investigations. The New York State Attorney General's office has also been scrutinising Adams' conduct. Recent reporting indicates prosecutors have been deliberating on charging decisions throughout 2024 and into 2025. The settlement window closes 1 January 2027, providing approximately one year for formal charges to be announced. Any public indication of imminent indictment would likely shift the current probability substantially.

How this market resolves

Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.

How to trade this market step by step

The mechanics for trading "Eric Adams charged by December 31?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.

1. Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
2. Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
3. Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
4. Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 19% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $526 if YES resolves true — a 426% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
5. Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
6. Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.

How active is this market?

$0 in lifetime turnover and $738 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for eric adams contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.

The market has been open for 4 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.

Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.

Key terms

YES / NO share

A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

CLOB

Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.

Liquidity

USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.

UMA optimistic oracle

The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.

Slippage

The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.

Conditional token

ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.

See the full prediction-market glossary →

Frequently asked questions

Risk and regulatory note

Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.

Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.

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