Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the person appointed as the next permanent manager of Elche CF. If no permanent manager is appointed by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other." Appointments of 'interim,' 'caretaker,' or other non-permanent managers will not impact this market's resolution. An announcement of a new permanent manager's appointment before this market's close date will immediately resolve this market to the corresponding option, regardless of when the announced appointment goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Elche CF; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Maurizio Sarri | 25% YES | 76% NO |
| Pep Guardiola | 13% YES | 88% NO |
| Ruben Amorim | 25% YES | 75% NO |
| Cesc Fabregas | 18% YES | 83% NO |
| Manager B | — | |
| Manager C | — | |
| Manager E | — | |
| Manager J | — | |
Elche CF will appoint a new permanent manager at some point before the end of August 2026. The current Polymarket order book prices this event at 25% probability, implying a 75% chance that either the incumbent manager remains in post or the club opts for interim arrangements rather than a permanent appointment during the settlement window.
Spanish football clubs at Elche's level—Segunda División or lower La Liga—typically cycle through managerial appointments every 18–24 months, with dismissals often clustered around January transfer windows or end-of-season reviews. Historical precedent suggests permanent appointments are more common than extended interim periods, though clubs facing financial or sporting instability sometimes delay formalising managerial positions. The current 25% probability reflects either confidence in the incumbent's position or uncertainty about whether Elche will commit to a permanent hire rather than a caretaker arrangement.
Traders should monitor Elche's league position and results through the 2025–26 season, particularly performance around January 2026 when managerial changes typically accelerate. Official club announcements regarding managerial status will resolve the market immediately upon publication, regardless of implementation date. Broader Spanish football news outlets and Elche's official channels remain the primary information sources; any public statement of a permanent managerial appointment before 1 September 2026 triggers resolution.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "LALIGA: Next Elche Manager" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$55 in lifetime turnover and $925 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for elche contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 1 September 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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