Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the change in the key rate resulting from the Bank of Russia’s June meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Russia after its June 19, 2026 meeting as listed on the official Bank of Russia calendar: https://www.cbr.ru/eng/dkp/cal_mp/#t13 This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Russia’s press release for their June 19, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the key rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Decrease | 83% YES | 17% NO |
| Increase | 2% YES | 98% NO |
| No Change | 17% YES | 84% NO |
The Bank of Russia's monetary policy committee will convene on 19 June 2026 to decide whether to adjust its key rate from its current level. The market is pricing a 76% probability of a rate change, reflecting expectations that the central bank will either raise or lower its benchmark rate at that meeting. This represents a meaningful shift from the status quo, suggesting traders anticipate material economic conditions will warrant policy adjustment by mid-2026.
Russia's inflation trajectory and geopolitical economic pressures have historically driven volatile rate decisions. The central bank raised rates aggressively through 2022–2023 in response to sanctions-driven inflation, then began cautious cuts in 2024. The current 76% probability sits between the extremes of certainty and stasis, suggesting the market views June conditions as genuinely uncertain. Comparable emerging-market central banks facing similar external shocks have typically signalled rate intentions weeks ahead, though the Bank of Russia has occasionally surprised with unexpected moves when domestic conditions shifted rapidly.
Traders should monitor inflation data releases through May 2026, any further Western sanctions announcements, and the rouble's performance against major currencies, all of which influence the Bank of Russia's calculus. The official monetary policy calendar on the central bank's website will confirm the exact meeting date and any forward guidance statements. Order book depth on Polymarket will tighten considerably in the final week before the announcement as new information crystallises, potentially shifting the implied probability materially from today's 76% level.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Bank of Russia decision in June?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$49K in lifetime turnover and $7K of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for economy contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $206 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for around a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 19 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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