Resolution criteria on PolyGram: As of market creation, the FDA's expected decision date for the specified application is May 18, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) grants full or conditional approval for Daiichi Sankyo & AstraZeneca's Enhertu as a treatment for neoadjuvant treatment of adult patients with HER2-positive breast cancer by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." An approval is defined as: For new drugs: FDA issuance of an approval letter for a New Drug Application (NDA) or Biologics License Application (BLA) For already-marketed drugs seeking new indications: FDA approval of a supplemental NDA (sNDA) or supplemental BLA…
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| FDA approves Daiichi Sankyo & AstraZeneca's Enhertu? | 79% YES | 21% NO |
Daiichi Sankyo and AstraZeneca are seeking FDA approval for Enhertu (fam-trastuzumab deruxtecan-nxki) as a neoadjuvant treatment for HER2-positive breast cancer, with the agency's decision expected by 18 May 2026. The 80% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects confidence in approval, though the settlement window extends to 1 June to account for potential administrative delays beyond the target date.
The current pricing aligns with historical approval rates for HER2-directed therapies in breast cancer, where regulatory success has been relatively robust. Enhertu already holds FDA approval for metastatic HER2-positive breast cancer and gastric cancer, establishing a known safety and efficacy profile. The neoadjuvant indication represents an extension into earlier disease stages, where efficacy data from Phase II/III trials typically determines approval likelihood. Similar pathway extensions for established oncology agents have succeeded at comparable or higher rates, though the specific patient population and efficacy thresholds set by the FDA remain material variables.
Traders should monitor FDA communications regarding any Refuse to File determinations or requests for additional data, which would signal approval delays. The company's recent earnings calls and regulatory updates provide insight into submission completeness and any outstanding agency questions. Patent and competitive landscape shifts—particularly regarding other HER2-targeting agents in neoadjuvant settings—could influence the agency's comparative assessment. Any material safety signals or manufacturing concerns raised during review would represent downside catalysts to the current probability estimate.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "FDA approves Daiichi Sankyo & AstraZeneca's Enhertu?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$687 in lifetime turnover and $1K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for drug contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $68 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 79%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 18 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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