Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Extended (https://x.com/extendedapp) officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Extended, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| March 31, 2026 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| September 30, 2026 | 81% YES | 20% NO |
| December 31, 2025 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| June 30, 2026 | 10% YES | 90% NO |
| December 31, 2026 | 91% YES | 9% NO |
Extended, a crypto application platform, has not yet launched a governance token despite operating in the market. The current Polymarket order book reflects a 0% implied probability that the firm will issue an actively tradable token by the end of 2026, suggesting traders assess a negligible likelihood of this occurring within the settlement window.
Comparable cases in the crypto sector show mixed patterns: some platforms launch governance tokens within 12–18 months of achieving product-market fit (Uniswap, Aave), whilst others operate for years without tokenisation (Coinbase remained non-tokenised through its IPO; Kraken has never issued one). The zero probability on Polymarket's order book likely reflects Extended's current operational trajectory and lack of public tokenisation roadmap, rather than technical impossibility. Without announced plans or regulatory catalysts pushing toward governance decentralisation, the market has priced in substantial scepticism.
Traders should monitor Extended's official communications channels and product announcements for any shift toward decentralised governance structures, which typically precede token launches. Recent industry trends show platforms increasingly adopting tokens to incentivise user participation and community involvement, though this remains discretionary rather than inevitable. Regulatory developments affecting token classification could also influence Extended's calculus. The settlement window extends through 2026, providing a multi-year observation period, but the current zero probability reflects the absence of any near-term signals suggesting imminent tokenisation.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Will Extended launch a token by ___ ?" are the same as any other PolyGram crypto-price event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$189K in lifetime turnover and $7K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for crypto contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $39 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 6 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 1 January 2027. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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