Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Cambria officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only an official token launched by Cambria will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count. The token must be actively and publicly tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Cambria (https://x.com/playcambria), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| September 30, 2027 | 52% YES | 49% NO |
| June 30, 2026 | 20% YES | 81% NO |
| September 30, 2026 | 69% YES | 32% NO |
| December 31, 2026 | 71% YES | 29% NO |
| March 31, 2027 | 52% YES | 49% NO |
| December 31, 2027 | 81% YES | 20% NO |
| June 30, 2027 | 78% YES | 23% NO |
Cambria, a blockchain gaming studio, may issue a native token before the end of 2027. The 52% implied probability on Polymarket reflects genuine uncertainty about both the timing and likelihood of a token launch, with the order book currently pricing this as a near coin-flip proposition. The resolution criteria are strict: only an officially launched, publicly tradable token from Cambria qualifies, excluding stablecoins, synthetic assets, and liquidity staking tokens. Announcements or pre-launch phases do not satisfy the condition.
Gaming studios in the crypto space have shown mixed patterns regarding tokenisation. Some projects like Axie Infinity and The Sandbox launched tokens within two to three years of mainnet deployment, whilst others delayed significantly or abandoned plans entirely. Cambria's trajectory will depend on whether the studio prioritises community governance and incentive alignment early, or opts for a longer bootstrapping period before introducing token economics. The current probability suggests the market assigns meaningful probability to both scenarios.
Key catalysts include official announcements from Cambria's social channels and development roadmap updates. The studio's funding status, user growth metrics, and competitive positioning within the gaming sector will inform whether tokenisation becomes strategically necessary. Traders should monitor whether Cambria signals intentions around decentralised governance or community rewards, which typically precede token launches. The settlement window extends through 2027, providing ample time for material developments, though the absence of public tokenisation signals to date suggests no imminent launch is anticipated.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Will Cambria launch a token by 2028?" are the same as any other PolyGram crypto-price event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$18K in lifetime turnover and $8K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for crypto contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $103 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 1 January 2028. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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