Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Base officially launches a token by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Base, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Crypto-price prediction markets like this one tend to gain volume in the final 48 hours as derivatives traders hedge spot exposure. Odds will populate live once the order book fills with 220 days to resolution, giving the order book ample time to absorb new information, backed by $52K of resting liquidity.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| December 31, 2025 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| December 31, 2026 | 41% YES | 60% NO |
| June 30, 2026 | 2% YES | 98% NO |
Base, Coinbase's Ethereum layer-2 network, has not announced plans for a native token launch. The market currently prices a zero per cent probability of such a token becoming actively tradable by the end of 2025, reflecting the absence of official statements or credible reporting suggesting imminent tokenisation. The settlement window extends to January 2027, creating a two-year window for potential developments, though the immediate deadline of 31 December 2025 is the operative constraint for this contract.
Layer-2 networks have shown mixed patterns regarding token launches. Arbitrum released its ARB token in March 2023 after years of operation without one, whilst Optimism launched OP in May 2022. Conversely, several established L2s including zkSync and StarkNet have delayed or remained non-committal on tokenisation despite community expectations. Base's parent company Coinbase has historically been cautious about token launches for its own infrastructure products, preferring to focus on user adoption and network growth before introducing governance or incentive mechanisms. This institutional approach distinguishes Base from some competitor chains that moved toward tokenisation more rapidly.
Traders monitoring this market should track Coinbase earnings calls and official Base announcements for any strategic pivots toward tokenisation. Recent reporting from The Block and CoinDesk would likely surface credible signals of token development. Key dependencies include Coinbase's broader regulatory positioning, competitive pressures from other L2s, and whether Base reaches sufficient scale to justify governance decentralisation. The current zero per cent probability on Polymarket's order book reflects consensus scepticism that these catalysts will align within the 2025 settlement window.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
For this market, the resolution date is 1 January 2027. A UMA proposer can submit the outcome from that moment; the two-hour dispute window closes at , and assuming no counter-claim is staked, winning USDC clears to trader balances by approximately .
If a dispute is filed inside the two-hour window, the outcome escalates to UMA token-holder voting, which extends settlement by roughly 48 hours. This particular market has no public resolution feed listed; disputes here are more likely if the underlying outcome is subject to interpretation, in which case the UMA token-vote arbitrates the wording of the original market question.
Crypto-price markets resolve from on-chain exchange data, so the proposer submits within minutes of the cutoff; over 90% of crypto markets clear within three hours of the resolution timestamp. Funds clear directly to your in-app USDC balance on Polygon. Withdrawals are non-custodial: send to any address you control, typical confirmation under 30 seconds, gas paid in USDC if you'd rather not hold MATIC.
Minimum order size on PolyGram is $1.00, with no maximum cap aside from available book depth. Orders route into Polymarket's on-chain CLOB on Polygon; the matching engine pairs YES buyers with NO buyers atomically — every executed trade is settled on-chain with no counterparty risk. For "Will Base launch a token by 2025?", crypto markets re-price within seconds of any underlying spot tick — expect the book to lift or hit ±$50k of liquidity inside 30 seconds of a major exchange move.
The trade ticket includes a slippage box (default 2%, configurable 0.1%-10%) that caps the worst-case entry price. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning YES (or NO) shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. With this market's current book depth ($52K of resting liquidity), a $200 order should fill with single-cent slippage at the displayed mid-price.
PolyGram charges 0% house edge — no spread mark-up, no rake on winnings, no withdrawal fees beyond network gas. The platform earns exclusively from optional features (copy-trade boosts, advanced order types, the yield vault on idle USDC); the trading surface itself is at-cost.
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The mechanics for trading "Will Base launch a token by 2025?" are the same as any other PolyGram crypto-price event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$6.6M in lifetime turnover and $52K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for crypto contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.
Last 24 hours alone saw $82K in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 8 months — long enough that the order book is mature and price is well-anchored to fundamentals.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 1 January 2027. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose. For "Will Base launch a token by 2025?", the considerations above apply directly — Crypto-price contracts inherit the volatility of the underlying asset. The market price will track spot tightly until a few hours before resolution, at which point the binary nature of the payoff creates non-linear gamma — small moves in spot can drive large moves in the contract.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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