Resolution criteria on PolyGram: What price will Ethereum hit on May 12?
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ↑ 2,650 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| ↑ 2,600 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| ↑ 2,550 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| ↑ 2,500 | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| ↑ 2,450 | 2% YES | 98% NO |
| ↑ 2,400 | 4% YES | 96% NO |
| ↑ 2,350 | 23% YES | 78% NO |
| ↓ 2,300 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
Ethereum's price movement on 12 May 2026 remains uncertain, with the current order book on Polymarket pricing this outcome at zero probability. This reflects either extreme confidence in a particular price level or insufficient liquidity at current bid-ask spreads to establish meaningful pricing. The settlement window extends to 13 May at 04:00 UTC, capturing a single day's trading activity across global markets.
Historical volatility in Ethereum has ranged from single-digit percentage daily moves during low-volatility periods to 15–20% swings during macro stress events or major protocol announcements. The 0% implied probability suggests traders are either heavily concentrated on a specific price outcome or the market lacks sufficient participation to form a consensus. Comparable single-day price targets in crypto markets typically see non-zero probabilities unless the strike price sits far outside recent trading ranges or historical precedent.
Traders monitoring this market should track Ethereum's spot price trajectory in the weeks preceding May 2026, as well as broader macro conditions affecting risk assets. Regulatory developments—particularly any significant announcements from the SEC or international bodies regarding staking or token classification—could create directional pressure. Layer 2 adoption metrics and network activity data, regularly reported by on-chain analytics firms, may also influence sentiment. The current zero probability may shift substantially as the settlement date approaches and trading volume increases, particularly if Ethereum's price approaches the specified strike level.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "What price will Ethereum hit on May 12?" are the same as any other PolyGram crypto-price event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$5K in lifetime turnover and $91K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for crypto contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $5K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 13 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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