Resolution criteria on PolyGram: What price will Ethereum hit on May 10?
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ↑ 2,650 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| ↑ 2,600 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| ↑ 2,550 | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| ↑ 2,500 | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| ↑ 2,450 | 2% YES | 98% NO |
| ↑ 2,400 | 33% YES | 67% NO |
| ↑ 2,350 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| ↓ 2,300 | 6% YES | 94% NO |
Ethereum's price action on 10 May 2026 will depend on macroeconomic conditions, regulatory developments, and on-chain activity across that specific calendar date. The settlement window extends to 11 May, capturing price movements across major exchanges during the relevant trading session. Current order book depth on Polymarket shows negligible liquidity, with the 0% implied probability reflecting either minimal trader interest at present valuations or consensus that the specified price level sits outside realistic near-term expectations given Ethereum's historical volatility bands.
Historical precedent suggests that single-day price targets for Ethereum require substantial catalyst alignment. During the 2021 bull cycle, daily moves exceeding 15–20% occurred around major announcements such as exchange listings or regulatory clarity; outside such events, daily volatility typically ranges 3–8%. The May 2026 settlement date falls roughly eighteen months forward, making medium-term macro factors—Federal Reserve policy, institutional adoption trends, and competing layer-one performance—more relevant than immediate news flow.
Traders monitoring this contract should track scheduled Ethereum development milestones, including any consensus-layer upgrades or major dApp ecosystem announcements. Broader crypto market sentiment, particularly Bitcoin's trajectory and correlation patterns, will likely dominate price discovery. Regulatory announcements from the SEC or international bodies could create outsized moves. The current zero probability reflects the market's assessment that establishing meaningful order book support requires either a significant price catalyst or a shift in how traders price tail-risk scenarios for that specific date.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "What price will Ethereum hit on May 10?" are the same as any other PolyGram crypto-price event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$81K in lifetime turnover and $94K of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for crypto contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $81K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 11 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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