Resolution criteria on PolyGram: What price will Bitcoin hit on May 16?
Crypto-price prediction markets like this one tend to gain volume in the final 48 hours as derivatives traders hedge spot exposure. Odds will populate live once the order book fills resolving today, backed by $277K of resting liquidity.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ↑ 87,000 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| ↑ 86,000 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| ↑ 84,000 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| ↑ 83,000 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| ↑ 82,000 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| ↑ 81,000 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| ↑ 80,000 | 2% YES | 98% NO |
| ↓ 78,000 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
Bitcoin needs to print a price at the May 16 close that lands in the market’s specified range before settlement at 04:00 UTC on 17 May. Polymarket’s order book is currently implying 0% for YES, so the market is treating that outcome as effectively unattainable at today’s spot levels. That pricing should be read as a live, tradable view formed by bids and offers rather than a static forecast: if liquidity is thin, the implied probability can stay pinned even when the underlying moves meaningfully.
Recent comparable levels suggest the market is anchoring around the high-$70,000s to low-$80,000s, not the next major round number. Fortune reported Bitcoin at $80,120.03 on 15 May, after $80,304.05 on 13 May, while Robinhood’s related event for 16 May showed $79,100 or above at 67¢ and $79,900 or above at 1¢. That gap between spot and the next strike-style threshold is the key reference point: short-horizon crypto markets tend to be driven more by positioning, momentum, and liquidation pressure than by fundamentals.
Traders should watch weekend liquidity, any large spot or derivatives flows, and whether the market continues to hold above or below $80,000 in the hours before settlement. There is no obvious scheduled macro catalyst in the next few hours, so price action is more likely to be shaped by crypto-specific order flow and headlines than by economic releases. The immediate context is still a market that has been trading well below its October 2025 peak of $126,198.07, which leaves room for large intraday swings without changing the broader trend.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
For this market, the resolution date is 17 May 2026. A UMA proposer can submit the outcome from that moment; the two-hour dispute window closes at , and assuming no counter-claim is staked, winning USDC clears to trader balances by approximately .
If a dispute is filed inside the two-hour window, the outcome escalates to UMA token-holder voting, which extends settlement by roughly 48 hours. Disputed resolutions are rare — fewer than 0.5% of PolyGram markets in 2026 to date — and even rarer for events with clear, verifiable resolution sources.
Funds clear directly to your in-app USDC balance on Polygon. From there, withdrawals are non-custodial: send to any address you control, typical confirmation under 30 seconds, gas paid in USDC if you'd rather not hold MATIC.
Minimum order size on PolyGram is $1.00, with no maximum cap aside from available book depth. Orders route into Polymarket's on-chain CLOB on Polygon; the matching engine pairs YES buyers with NO buyers atomically — every executed trade is settled on-chain with no counterparty risk.
The trade ticket includes a slippage box (default 2%, configurable 0.1%-10%) that caps the worst-case entry price. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning YES (or NO) shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Your slippage tolerance and the depth of resting limit orders determine the actual fill.
PolyGram charges 0% house edge — no spread mark-up, no rake on winnings, no withdrawal fees beyond network gas. The platform earns exclusively from optional features (copy-trade boosts, advanced order types, the yield vault on idle USDC); the trading surface itself is at-cost.
Other active prediction markets in the same category on PolyGram, ranked by trading volume:
The mechanics for trading "What price will Bitcoin hit on May 16?" are the same as any other PolyGram crypto-price event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$185K in lifetime turnover and $277K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for crypto contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $185K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 17 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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