Resolution criteria on PolyGram: What price will Bitcoin hit on May 15?
Crypto-price prediction markets like this one tend to gain volume in the final 48 hours as derivatives traders hedge spot exposure. Odds will populate live once the order book fills (the resolution date has passed — final payout is being settled via UMA oracle).
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ↑ 86,000 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| ↓ 81,000 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| ↓ 80,000 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| ↓ 79,000 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| ↓ 78,000 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| ↓ 77,000 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| ↓ 76,000 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| ↓ 75,000 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Bitcoin traded around $78,000–$79,000 in the latest market data, after a sharp pullback from above $104,000 a week earlier and well below its October 2025 peak near $126,000. That leaves the market asking whether BTC can still print a higher level by 15 May, with the current Polymarket price reflecting a 0% YES probability and the order book therefore implying effectively no chance that the contract will resolve positively at today’s price levels. In practice, that means the market is pricing the event as out of range unless there is a very large intraday move before the settlement window closes.
For context, Bitcoin has regularly produced double-digit percentage swings over short periods, but moves of the size needed to change a 0% reading into a live strike probability are rare without a major catalyst. Comparable episodes have tended to follow exchange-specific shocks, regulatory announcements, or sharp macro repricing rather than ordinary spot drift. Recent live price feeds from Coinbase, CoinMarketCap and TradingView all show BTC trading materially below both last week’s level and the prior high, which helps explain why the market is not assigning meaningful odds to a higher print.
Traders should watch for any US macro releases, ETF flow data, and any exchange or regulatory headlines that could hit crypto risk appetite quickly. Bitcoin trades continuously and responds immediately to liquidity changes, so the relevant dependency is not a scheduled close but whether price can break out before the contract’s settlement time. In this market, Polymarket’s implied probability is formed by the current best bids and offers on the order book, so even a small shift in demand can move the price from a flat zero to a non-zero chance if spot momentum turns sharply.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
For this market, the resolution date is 16 May 2026. A UMA proposer can submit the outcome from that moment; the two-hour dispute window closes at , and assuming no counter-claim is staked, winning USDC clears to trader balances by approximately .
If a dispute is filed inside the two-hour window, the outcome escalates to UMA token-holder voting, which extends settlement by roughly 48 hours. Disputed resolutions are rare — fewer than 0.5% of PolyGram markets in 2026 to date — and even rarer for events with clear, verifiable resolution sources.
Funds clear directly to your in-app USDC balance on Polygon. From there, withdrawals are non-custodial: send to any address you control, typical confirmation under 30 seconds, gas paid in USDC if you'd rather not hold MATIC.
Minimum order size on PolyGram is $1.00, with no maximum cap aside from available book depth. Orders route into Polymarket's on-chain CLOB on Polygon; the matching engine pairs YES buyers with NO buyers atomically — every executed trade is settled on-chain with no counterparty risk.
The trade ticket includes a slippage box (default 2%, configurable 0.1%-10%) that caps the worst-case entry price. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning YES (or NO) shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Your slippage tolerance and the depth of resting limit orders determine the actual fill.
PolyGram charges 0% house edge — no spread mark-up, no rake on winnings, no withdrawal fees beyond network gas. The platform earns exclusively from optional features (copy-trade boosts, advanced order types, the yield vault on idle USDC); the trading surface itself is at-cost.
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The mechanics for trading "What price will Bitcoin hit on May 15?" are the same as any other PolyGram crypto-price event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$318K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for crypto contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $255K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 16 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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