Resolution criteria on PolyGram: What price will Bitcoin hit on May 10?
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ↑ 88,000 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| ↑ 87,000 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| ↑ 86,000 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| ↑ 85,000 | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| ↑ 84,000 | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| ↑ 83,000 | 5% YES | 95% NO |
| ↑ 82,000 | 37% YES | 64% NO |
| ↑ 81,000 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
Bitcoin's price movement on 10 May 2026 remains uncertain, with the current order book on Polymarket showing 0% implied probability for this specific outcome. The settlement window extends to 11 May 2026, capturing a single day's trading activity. The 0% probability reflects either extreme confidence that Bitcoin will not reach a particular price threshold on that date, or insufficient liquidity and interest in this specific contract relative to other Bitcoin price prediction markets.
Historical Bitcoin price action demonstrates daily volatility ranging from 2–8% under normal market conditions, though larger swings occur during macroeconomic announcements or regulatory developments. Previous single-day price predictions have typically attracted meaningful trading volume only when tied to scheduled events—Federal Reserve decisions, major institutional announcements, or options expiry dates. The absence of a clearly defined catalyst on 10 May 2026 may explain the current lack of market participation, as traders typically concentrate liquidity around dates with known catalysts rather than arbitrary calendar dates.
Traders monitoring this contract should track Bitcoin's correlation with broader risk assets, particularly equity market movements and US dollar strength in the weeks preceding May 2026. Regulatory announcements from the SEC or international bodies, major cryptocurrency exchange developments, and macroeconomic data releases could shift implied probabilities substantially. The current 0% reading suggests the market has not yet priced in meaningful conviction about price movement on this specific date, leaving the contract potentially sensitive to new information or increased participation.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "What price will Bitcoin hit on May 10?" are the same as any other PolyGram crypto-price event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$95K in lifetime turnover and $178K of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for crypto contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $95K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 11 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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