Crypto

Trade: Tread FDV above 2028 one day after launch?

Opened · Settles

Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Tread's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." Only an official token launched by Tread will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count. The token must be actively and publicly tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available.

PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.

Liquidity
$70K
Total Volume
$38K
24h Volume
$7K
Open Interest
$12K
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Market outcomes

$100M 16% YES84% NO
$400M 7% YES93% NO
$40M 57% YES43% NO
$80M 32% YES68% NO
$150M 18% YES82% NO
$200M 15% YES85% NO
$500M 4% YES96% NO
$300M 9% YES91% NO

Market context

Tread, a blockchain infrastructure platform, is preparing to launch its native token. The market will resolve affirmatively if the token's fully diluted valuation—calculated by multiplying total supply by trading price—exceeds a specified threshold within 24 hours of becoming publicly tradable. The settlement window extends to 1 January 2028, providing substantial time for the launch event to occur and resolve.

Comparable token launches from infrastructure-focused projects offer limited precedent for predicting immediate post-launch valuations. Early-stage blockchain infrastructure tokens have historically experienced significant volatility in their first trading day, with FDV outcomes heavily dependent on initial market sentiment, liquidity conditions, and the size of any pre-launch token allocation. Projects with substantial venture backing and established developer communities have occasionally achieved higher FDVs at launch, though execution risk remains material. The current 17% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects substantial uncertainty about both the launch timeline and the specific valuation threshold in question.

Key catalysts include any official announcement of a launch date from Tread's team, details regarding token distribution mechanisms, and broader market conditions for cryptocurrency assets in the months preceding launch. Traders should monitor Tread's development progress, fundraising announcements, and partnership developments, as these typically precede token launch windows. Market-wide sentiment towards infrastructure tokens and liquidity availability on major exchanges at the moment of launch will significantly influence the FDV outcome. The extended settlement window means the probability may shift considerably as launch details become concrete.

Wikipedia Context

  • Tread (film)
    Tread (film)

    Tread is a 2019 American documentary film directed by Paul Solet centering upon a 2004 attack upon the small mountain town of Granby, Colorado by welder Marvin Heemeyer, who destroyed a number of businesses and homes in that town with a secretly fortified bulldozer made up of steel, concrete, and guns after feuding with multiple residents. It premiered at th

  • Bette Treadville
    Bette Treadville

    Bette Treadville was an American singer and actress, based in Los Angeles, California.

  • Fluvial terrace

    Fluvial terraces are elongated terraces that flank the sides of floodplains and fluvial valleys all over the world. They consist of a relatively level strip of land, called a "tread", separated from either an adjacent floodplain, other fluvial terraces, or uplands by distinctly steeper strips of land called "risers". These terraces lie parallel to and above

  • Trearddur
    Trearddur

    Trearddur or Trearddur Bay is a village, seaside resort and community south of Holyhead on the west coast of Holy Island off the north-west coast of Anglesey in Wales. The community includes the small settlements of Penrhosfeilw and Goferydd and the Refail Farm estate.

How this market resolves

Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.

How to trade this market step by step

The mechanics for trading "Tread FDV above 2028 one day after launch?" are the same as any other PolyGram crypto-price event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.

  1. Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
  2. Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
  3. Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
  4. Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
  5. Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
  6. Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.

How active is this market?

$38K in lifetime turnover and $70K of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for crypto contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.

Last 24 hours alone saw $7K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.

The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.

Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.

Key terms

YES / NO share
A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
CLOB
Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
Liquidity
USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
UMA optimistic oracle
The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
Slippage
The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
Conditional token
ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.

See the full prediction-market glossary →

Frequently asked questions

How does this market resolve?

Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.

When does this market close?

This prediction market is scheduled to close on 1 January 2028. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.

How can I trade on "Tread FDV above 2028 one day after launch?"?

To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.

What happens when the market resolves?

When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.

Risk and regulatory note

Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.

Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.

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