Resolution criteria on PolyGram: Stablecoins depeg before 2027?
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| USDC | 2% YES | 98% NO |
| USDE | 8% YES | 92% NO |
| USDS | 14% YES | 86% NO |
| DAI | 14% YES | 87% NO |
| USD1 | 6% YES | 95% NO |
| PYUSD | 13% YES | 88% NO |
| USDTb | 24% YES | 77% NO |
| USD0 | 20% YES | 81% NO |
A stablecoin depeg occurs when a token pegged to a fiat currency—typically the US dollar—trades materially below its stated value for a sustained period. The question examines whether any major stablecoin will break its peg before 1 January 2027. Current Polymarket order book pricing reflects a 3% probability of this event, implying traders assess the risk as low but non-negligible over the next two years.
Historical precedent provides context for interpreting this probability. Terra's UST collapsed to $0.10 in May 2022 after a bank run on Luna Foundation Guard reserves, whilst USDC briefly traded at $0.87 following Silicon Valley Bank's failure in March 2023, though it recovered within days. These episodes demonstrate that even well-capitalised stablecoins face depeg risk during systemic stress, yet major issuers—Tether, Circle, Paxos—have maintained pegs through subsequent market volatility. The 3% probability reflects confidence in current reserve structures and regulatory oversight, though not certainty.
Traders should monitor regulatory developments around stablecoin reserve requirements, particularly any US legislation mandating full collateralisation or restricting reserve composition. Announcements from the Federal Reserve regarding interest rates and banking sector stability carry outsized weight, as do disclosures from issuers regarding reserve audits. Geopolitical tensions affecting US Treasury markets or credit events involving major custodians—where stablecoin reserves are held—represent tail-risk catalysts. Any material decline in cryptocurrency market capitalisation triggering redemption waves would test depeg resilience.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Stablecoins depeg before 2027?" are the same as any other PolyGram crypto-price event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$289K in lifetime turnover and $45K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for crypto contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.
Last 24 hours alone saw $212 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 4 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 1 January 2027. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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