Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Infinex's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Infinex (https://infinex.xyz/) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| $800M | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| $600M | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| $400M | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| $1B | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| $5B | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| $2B | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| $3B | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| $4B | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Infinex, a decentralised exchange platform, is expected to launch a native token before the end of 2026. The market is pricing the probability that this token's fully diluted valuation will exceed a specified threshold within 24 hours of becoming publicly tradable. Current Polymarket order book activity shows 0% implied probability, suggesting traders are either pricing in no launch occurring by the deadline or expecting the FDV to remain below the threshold level immediately post-launch.
Token launches from established crypto platforms typically see significant initial volatility. Comparable cases—such as dYdX's 2021 launch, which saw the token trade at valuations substantially below fully diluted levels in early hours, or Uniswap's 2020 launch—demonstrate that FDV thresholds are frequently not met within the first day despite strong market reception. Early trading often reflects only a fraction of circulating supply, creating a gap between spot price valuations and fully diluted metrics. The 0% probability on Polymarket reflects this historical pattern where initial trading dynamics rarely support high FDV readings immediately post-launch.
Traders should monitor Infinex's official announcements regarding token distribution mechanics, unlock schedules, and launch timing. The platform's recent development updates and community communications will signal proximity to launch. Key dependencies include regulatory clearance, smart contract audits, and exchange listing confirmations. The December 31, 2026 deadline creates a compressed window; any delays beyond autumn 2026 would substantially reduce launch probability. Watching for governance token allocation details and initial liquidity commitments will help calibrate expectations around early trading valuations.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Infinex FDV above ___ one day after launch?" are the same as any other PolyGram crypto-price event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$2.8M in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for crypto contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for 6 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 1 January 2027. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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