Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
Crypto-price prediction markets like this one tend to gain volume in the final 48 hours as derivatives traders hedge spot exposure. Odds will populate live once the order book fills with 1 day to resolution — final-48h markets historically see the largest volume spikes, backed by $249K of resting liquidity.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| 1,900 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 1,700 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 1,800 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 2,000 | 99% YES | 1% NO |
| 2,500 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 2,100 | 80% YES | 21% NO |
| 2,200 | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| 2,300 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Ethereum needs to hold above the market’s threshold on Binance’s 1-minute ETH/USDT candle at 12:00 ET on 23 May. The current 100% crowd view on Polymarket is being built from the live order book, where available liquidity and repeated buying have pushed the implied probability to the ceiling. That does not mean the outcome is risk-free: it usually indicates either very strong conviction, limited opposing depth, or both, and the market can still move sharply if fresh flow appears into expiry.
Recent reference points suggest ETH has been trading in a relatively tight but still volatile band. Fortune’s updates put ETH at $2,327.03 on 7 May and $2,279.24 on 8 May, while Statista’s daily series shows it around $2,306.83 on 9 May, $2,326.46 on 10 May and $2,368.84 on 11 May, before later May prints around $2,131.83 on Investing.com. That mix of mid-$2,000s levels and day-to-day swings matters because a noon ET Binance candle can be influenced by short-lived moves, not just the broader spot trend.
Traders should watch for anything that changes intraday liquidity or sentiment before the settlement window closes: spot crypto risk appetite, macro headlines that affect US hours, and any Ethereum-specific network or ETF-related news. Recent commentary has linked ETH’s 2026 path to adoption, ETF expectations and broader crypto market cap expansion, but for this market the immediate dependency is narrower: the Binance ETH/USDT price at a single minute mark. Even a brief wick around noon ET can decide the result.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
For this market, the resolution date is 23 May 2026. A UMA proposer can submit the outcome from that moment; the two-hour dispute window closes at , and assuming no counter-claim is staked, winning USDC clears to trader balances by approximately .
If a dispute is filed inside the two-hour window, the outcome escalates to UMA token-holder voting, which extends settlement by roughly 48 hours. This particular market has no public resolution feed listed; disputes here are more likely if the underlying outcome is subject to interpretation, in which case the UMA token-vote arbitrates the wording of the original market question.
Crypto-price markets resolve from on-chain exchange data, so the proposer submits within minutes of the cutoff; over 90% of crypto markets clear within three hours of the resolution timestamp. Funds clear directly to your in-app USDC balance on Polygon. Withdrawals are non-custodial: send to any address you control, typical confirmation under 30 seconds, gas paid in USDC if you'd rather not hold MATIC.
Minimum order size on PolyGram is $1.00, with no maximum cap aside from available book depth. Orders route into Polymarket's on-chain CLOB on Polygon; the matching engine pairs YES buyers with NO buyers atomically — every executed trade is settled on-chain with no counterparty risk. For "Ethereum above 2026 on May 23?", crypto markets re-price within seconds of any underlying spot tick — expect the book to lift or hit ±$50k of liquidity inside 30 seconds of a major exchange move.
The trade ticket includes a slippage box (default 2%, configurable 0.1%-10%) that caps the worst-case entry price. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning YES (or NO) shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. With this market's current book depth ($249K of resting liquidity), a $500 order should fill with single-cent slippage at the displayed mid-price.
PolyGram charges 0% house edge — no spread mark-up, no rake on winnings, no withdrawal fees beyond network gas. The platform earns exclusively from optional features (copy-trade boosts, advanced order types, the yield vault on idle USDC); the trading surface itself is at-cost.
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The mechanics for trading "Ethereum above 2026 on May 23?" are the same as any other PolyGram crypto-price event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$198K in lifetime turnover and $249K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for crypto contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $109K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 23 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose. For "Ethereum above 2026 on May 23?", the considerations above apply directly — Crypto-price contracts inherit the volatility of the underlying asset. The market price will track spot tightly until a few hours before resolution, at which point the binary nature of the payoff creates non-linear gamma — small moves in spot can drive large moves in the contract.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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