Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT May 24 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the May 25 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT May 24 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the May 25 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50.
Crypto-price prediction markets like this one tend to gain volume in the final 48 hours as derivatives traders hedge spot exposure. Current odds favour the YES side at 80%, making this a high-confidence market with 1 day to resolution — final-48h markets historically see the largest volume spikes, backed by $41K of resting liquidity.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Bitcoin Up or Down on May 25? | 80% YES | 21% NO |
This market resolves based on whether Bitcoin's price at noon ET on 25 May 2026 will be higher or lower than its price at noon ET on 24 May 2026, using Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle closes. The 76% implied probability for upward movement reflects current order book positioning on Polymarket, where traders are pricing in a notably bullish lean across this intraday window. A tie resolves the market 50-50, though exact price matches across consecutive daily candles remain statistically rare.
Intraday Bitcoin moves of this nature—single-day directional bets on noon-to-noon price action—typically correlate with broader market sentiment and macroeconomic calendar events rather than isolated technical factors. Historical precedent suggests that when Bitcoin enters a period of elevated implied volatility, single-day directional markets tend to see probabilities cluster around 55-65% for either direction; the current 76% YES reading indicates traders are assigning material weight to upside momentum persisting into late May 2026. Comparable markets on similar timeframes have shown that consensus probabilities above 75% often reflect either strong directional conviction or positioning imbalances rather than fundamental certainty.
Traders should monitor Federal Reserve communications, inflation data releases, and any significant cryptocurrency regulatory announcements scheduled between 24-25 May 2026, as these typically drive intraday volatility. Bitcoin's correlation with equity futures and Treasury yields during US trading hours remains a primary driver of noon-to-noon directional moves. Binance order book depth and spot-futures basis will provide real-time signals on whether the current bullish lean holds as the settlement window approaches.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
For this market, the resolution date is 25 May 2026. A UMA proposer can submit the outcome from that moment; the two-hour dispute window closes at , and assuming no counter-claim is staked, winning USDC clears to trader balances by approximately .
If a dispute is filed inside the two-hour window, the outcome escalates to UMA token-holder voting, which extends settlement by roughly 48 hours. Because this market resolves from a publicly verifiable feed (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT), the probability of dispute is materially lower than the overall 0.5% PolyGram baseline — most disputes occur on markets with ambiguous wording or non-public resolution sources.
Crypto-price markets resolve from on-chain exchange data, so the proposer submits within minutes of the cutoff; over 90% of crypto markets clear within three hours of the resolution timestamp. Funds clear directly to your in-app USDC balance on Polygon. Withdrawals are non-custodial: send to any address you control, typical confirmation under 30 seconds, gas paid in USDC if you'd rather not hold MATIC.
Minimum order size on PolyGram is $1.00, with no maximum cap aside from available book depth. Orders route into Polymarket's on-chain CLOB on Polygon; the matching engine pairs YES buyers with NO buyers atomically — every executed trade is settled on-chain with no counterparty risk. For "Bitcoin Up or Down on May 25?", crypto markets re-price within seconds of any underlying spot tick — expect the book to lift or hit ±$50k of liquidity inside 30 seconds of a major exchange move.
The trade ticket includes a slippage box (default 2%, configurable 0.1%-10%) that caps the worst-case entry price. At the current YES price of 80%, a $200 stake on YES buys roughly 250 shares; if YES resolves true those shares pay out at $1.00 each (a $250 gross payout, or +$50 profit). If NO resolves, the shares are worth $0. Slippage tolerance and resting-order depth determine the actual fill.
PolyGram charges 0% house edge — no spread mark-up, no rake on winnings, no withdrawal fees beyond network gas. The platform earns exclusively from optional features (copy-trade boosts, advanced order types, the yield vault on idle USDC); the trading surface itself is at-cost.
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The mechanics for trading "Bitcoin Up or Down on May 25?" are the same as any other PolyGram crypto-price event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$91K in lifetime turnover and $41K of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for crypto contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $90K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 80%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 25 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose. For "Bitcoin Up or Down on May 25?", the considerations above apply directly — Crypto-price contracts inherit the volatility of the underlying asset. The market price will track spot tightly until a few hours before resolution, at which point the binary nature of the payoff creates non-linear gamma — small moves in spot can drive large moves in the contract.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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