What is the current probability for "Crint Irl Wst 2026 05 28 Toss Match Double"?

As of 3 June 2026, the market probability on PolyGram is available on PolyGram. Trade on this outcome at polygram.ink.

Cricket

Trade: T20 Ireland Tri-Series, Women: Ireland vs West Indies - Toss Match Double

Q: What happens when the market resolves?

Winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon with a two-hour dispute window before payouts are distributed automatically.

Opened 25 May 2026 · Settles 4 June 2026

Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the combination of the pre-match coin toss and the final match result for the cricket match between Ireland and West Indies scheduled for 2026-05-28 in T20 Ireland Tri-Series, Women. This market resolves according to (1) the official toss result and (2) the finalized match result as published by https://www.espncricinfo.com/. The outcome corresponding to Ireland will be considered correct if Ireland is officially recorded as winning both the toss and the match. The outcome corresponding to West Indies will be considered correct if West Indies is officially recorded as winning both the toss and the match.

PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.

Liquidity: —
Total Volume: $146
24h Volume: —
Open Interest: —

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Market outcomes

IRL	0% YES	100% NO
Draw	0% YES	100% NO
WST	100% YES	0% NO

Market context

Ireland and West Indies will contest a T20 women's match on 28 May 2026 as part of the Ireland Tri-Series. This market requires both the coin toss outcome and the final match result to align with a single team—either Ireland wins the toss and the match, or West Indies does both. The settlement hinges on official records from ESPNcricinfo, with the window closing on 4 June 2026.

The 0% implied probability reflects the extreme difficulty of predicting a double outcome. Historical T20 women's cricket shows toss outcomes are genuinely random events (approximately 50/50), whilst match results depend on team form, conditions, and squad composition. The conjunction of both events favouring one team creates a compound probability that sits well below either event independently. For context, similar "double" markets in cricket typically trade between 20–35% for the favoured team when there is a clear quality gap, suggesting current pricing may reflect either balanced fixture expectations or limited order book depth on Polymarket.

Key variables include squad announcements and recent form data from both sides leading into late May 2026. Weather conditions at the Irish venue will influence match dynamics substantially. Traders should monitor any injury updates or selection changes from West Indies and Ireland cricket boards in the weeks preceding the fixture, as these directly affect match outcome probability. The tri-series format itself may reveal team momentum through earlier matches, providing updated information for this specific encounter.

Wikipedia Context

The Ireland That We Dreamed Of
"On Language & the Irish Nation" was the title of a radio address made by Éamon de Valera, then Taoiseach of Ireland, on Raidió Éireann on Saint Patrick's Day 1943. It is often called The Ireland that we dreamed of, a phrase which is used within it, or the "comely maidens" speech. The speech marked the 50th anniversary of the foundation of the Gaelic League,
Tim Ireland
Timothy Neal Christopher Ireland is an American former professional baseball player. He played parts of two seasons in Major League Baseball for the Kansas City Royals, appearing in 11 games in 1981 and 1982. He has also managed 12 seasons at various levels of the minor leagues.
Irish Free State
The Irish Free State, also known by its Irish name Saorstát Éireann, was the Irish state established in December 1922 under the Anglo-Irish Treaty of December 1921, initially as a Dominion. The treaty ended the three-year Irish War of Independence between the forces of the Irish Republic—the Irish Republican Army (IRA)—and British Crown forces.
Virgin Media One
Virgin Media One, also called Virgin One, is an Irish free-to-air television channel owned by Virgin Media Ireland, operated through its subsidiary Virgin Media Television. The channel launched on 20 September 1998, as TV Three, becoming Ireland's fourth television channel and the first commercial channel. It was known as TV3 from 2006, and then as Virgin Me

Resolution source

This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.espncricinfo.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.

How to trade this market step by step

The mechanics for trading "T20 Ireland Tri-Series, Women: Ireland vs West Indies - Toss Match Double" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.

Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.

How active is this market?

$146 in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for cricket contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.

The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.

Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.

Key terms

YES / NO share: A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
CLOB: Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
Liquidity: USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
UMA optimistic oracle: The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
Slippage: The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
Conditional token: ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.

See the full prediction-market glossary →

Frequently asked questions

How does this market resolve?

Resolution is sourced from https://www.espncricinfo.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.

When does this market close?

This prediction market is scheduled to close on 4 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.

How can I trade on "T20 Ireland Tri-Series, Women: Ireland vs West Indies - Toss Match Double"?

To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.

What happens when the market resolves?

When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.

Risk and regulatory note

Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.

Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.

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