Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of Colombian President Gustavo Petro by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| April 30 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| May 31 | 3% YES | 97% NO |
| June 30 | 8% YES | 92% NO |
The market concerns whether Colombian President Gustavo Petro will face criminal charges filed by any US Federal or State jurisdiction before the end of April 2026. Petro, who took office in August 2022, has maintained contentious relations with the United States on drug policy and extradition matters. The resolution hinges on formal indictment or charge announcements from US authorities, with official government sources as the primary reference point.
Historical precedent offers limited direct comparisons, though sitting heads of state have rarely faced US criminal charges whilst in office. The cases of Manuel Noriega and Augusto Pinochet involved charges after loss of power or whilst detained abroad. Petro's current presidential immunity under Colombian law would not shield him from US jurisdiction, but prosecuting a sitting president presents significant diplomatic complications. The 0% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects the absence of public allegations, ongoing investigations, or indictment threats from US authorities as of today.
Traders should monitor developments regarding US-Colombia extradition disputes, particularly around drug trafficking investigations or financial crime allegations. Recent tensions have centred on Petro's criticism of US drug policy rather than personal criminal exposure. Any announcement from the Department of Justice, FBI, or state prosecutors would constitute a material catalyst. The settlement window extends through May 2026, providing roughly eighteen months for circumstances to shift materially from the current baseline of no apparent prosecutorial interest.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Will Gustavo Petro be charged in the US by...?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$76K in lifetime turnover and $6K of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for colombia contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $31 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for around a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: