Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 3 (“Reconsider Nonessential Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A Level 3 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| CDC issues Level 3 warning by December 31? | 65% YES | 35% NO |
The CDC's Travel Health Notice system uses a four-tier classification, with Level 3 ("Reconsider Nonessential Travel") representing a significant disease threat warranting advisory against routine travel. This market settles affirmatively if any pathogen triggers such a notice between now and 31 December 2026. The 56% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects genuine uncertainty about disease emergence and CDC response thresholds over a two-year window.
Level 3 notices have been issued with irregular frequency. The 2014–2016 Zika outbreak prompted Level 3 notices across multiple countries; mpox (monkeypox) triggered Level 3 notices in 2022 during its rapid global spread. Conversely, many respiratory pathogens circulating annually—including seasonal influenza and recent COVID-19 variants—have not consistently triggered Level 3 designations despite significant transmission. The CDC's threshold depends on both disease severity and epidemiological trajectory, creating ambiguity about what constitutes sufficient cause for escalation.
Traders should monitor emerging infectious disease surveillance data, particularly from WHO Disease Outbreak News and CDC FluView reports, alongside international travel patterns that influence CDC decision-making. Seasonal influenza activity typically peaks January through March in the Northern Hemisphere; respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and other winter pathogens present recurring catalysts. Novel pathogen emergence—whether zoonotic spillover events or unexpected variants of circulating viruses—represents the primary tail-risk driver. CDC advisory committees meet regularly but do not publish fixed schedules for Level 3 determinations, meaning notices can be issued with limited advance warning once epidemiological thresholds are met.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "CDC issues Level 3 warning by December 31?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$117K in lifetime turnover and $390 of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for climate science contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for 4 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 65%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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