Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | 18% YES | 83% NO |
A military invasion of Taiwan by mainland China within the next three years remains a low-probability event according to current market pricing. The 14% implied probability reflects expectations that despite escalating cross-strait tensions, Beijing will not initiate a full-scale offensive to seize territory administered by Taipei before the end of 2027. This assessment prices in China's preference for economic and political pressure over kinetic action, alongside the substantial military and diplomatic costs such an operation would entail.
Historical precedent suggests caution against dismissing the risk entirely. The 1950 Korean War began with assumptions that the peninsula was outside American security interests; similarly, the 1982 Falkland Islands invasion surprised many observers. Taiwan's strategic importance to global semiconductor supply chains and regional stability has only intensified since 2020, yet China's military modernisation has proceeded faster than many Western analysts anticipated. The 2022 Ukraine invasion demonstrated that major powers can still pursue territorial conquest despite international opposition, though the operational challenges of amphibious assault across the Taiwan Strait remain substantially greater than Russia faced in Ukraine.
Near-term catalysts include Taiwan's 2024 presidential transition, scheduled US military aid announcements, and any significant shifts in cross-strait rhetoric following Chinese Communist Party meetings. The US election cycle and potential changes to American security commitments represent structural variables affecting Beijing's calculus. Markets will likely reprice sharply on evidence of military mobilisation, explicit invasion rhetoric from senior Chinese officials, or unexpected deterioration in US-China relations beyond current baseline tensions.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$523K in lifetime turnover and $107K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for china contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $35K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for around a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 18%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2027. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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