Resolution criteria on PolyGram: On January 24, President Trump announced that the United States would apply a 100% tariff to all imports from Canada if a trade deal with China goes through. (see: https://www.reuters.com/world/china/trump-threatens-canada-with-100-tariff-over-possible-deal-with-china-2026-01-24/). This market will resolve to “Yes” if a general 100% tariff rate or higher on imports into the United States from Canada goes into effect for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only tariffs specifically targeting Canada will qualify. For example, a new global tariff (tariffs on all imports into the U.S.) will not count toward this market's resolution.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| 100% tariff on Canada in effect by June 30? | 3% YES | 97% NO |
On 24 January 2026, President Trump announced that the United States would impose a 100% tariff on all Canadian imports contingent upon reaching a trade deal with China. The threat represents an escalation in Trump's trade negotiation strategy, linking North American commerce directly to US-China bilateral outcomes. The market settles affirmatively if such a tariff takes effect at any point before 30 June 2026, with the rate applying to general Canadian imports rather than sector-specific measures.
The 3% implied probability reflects historical precedent around Trump's tariff announcements. During his first term (2017–2021), Trump frequently threatened tariffs that did not materialise in their stated form, or were substantially modified through negotiation. The 25% steel and aluminium tariffs on Canada (2018) and subsequent USMCA renegotiation demonstrate that even significant trade threats typically resolve through deal-making rather than maximum-rate implementation. Conditional tariffs—those explicitly tied to third-party outcomes—have historically faced additional friction from diplomatic channels and domestic business lobbying.
Key catalysts include announcements regarding US-China trade negotiations, which would trigger the conditional mechanism, and any formal tariff proclamations from the Office of the US Trade Representative. Markets should monitor statements from Canadian officials and business groups, as coordinated pressure has historically influenced Trump's final tariff decisions. The six-month window provides substantial time for negotiation, though the explicit conditionality creates binary dependency on China deal progress rather than independent Canadian trade dynamics.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "100% tariff on Canada in effect by June 30?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$46K in lifetime turnover and $8K of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for china contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $108 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 4 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 3%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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