Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the implied equity valuation of OpenAI at its initial public offering (IPO) price. The IPO valuation is defined as the final IPO price per share multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The IPO price will be the final offering price to the public as stated in the final prospectus. Trading prices after listing, including the opening trade, intraday prices, or closing price on the first day of trading, will not be considered.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| <$1T | 19% YES | 81% NO |
| $1.25T–$1.5T | 33% YES | 68% NO |
| $1.0T–$1.25T | 16% YES | 84% NO |
| $1.5T–$1.75T | 11% YES | 89% NO |
| $1.75T–$2.0T | 17% YES | 84% NO |
| $2.0T–$2.25T | 9% YES | 91% NO |
| $2.5T+ | 5% YES | 95% NO |
| $2.25T–$2.5T | 11% YES | 90% NO |
OpenAI's path to public markets remains uncertain, with the company's leadership having signalled interest in going public but without a confirmed timeline or valuation target. The firm raised $6.6 billion in October 2024 at a $157 billion valuation in its most recent secondary funding round, establishing a floor for any future IPO pricing. Current market conditions for technology IPOs remain mixed, with investor appetite varying considerably based on profitability metrics and growth trajectories. The settlement window extends to July 2027, providing a three-year window during which an offering could materialise.
Historical precedent from comparable technology IPOs offers limited guidance for OpenAI's specific case. Nvidia's 2024 valuation trajectory and the 2023 IPO market downturn both demonstrate how volatile public market pricing can be relative to private valuations. Companies like Stripe and Databricks have delayed public offerings despite substantial private valuations, suggesting that reaching IPO conditions involves factors beyond valuation alone, including profitability requirements and market sentiment.
Key catalysts include OpenAI's quarterly financial disclosures, which have become more transparent following its restructuring discussions; any material announcements regarding governance changes or strategic partnerships; and broader shifts in technology sector valuations. Regulatory developments affecting large language models could influence investor appetite. The current 33% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects substantial uncertainty about both timing and the valuation threshold that would trigger resolution, with traders pricing in meaningful execution risk around the IPO process itself.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$1K in lifetime turnover and $14K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for chatgpt contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 1 July 2027. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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