Trade: OpenAI GPT score on FrontierMath Benchmark by June 30?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if any OpenAI GPT model achieves the listed score or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve according to the Epoch AI’s Frontier Math benchmarking leaderboard (https://epoch.ai/frontiermath) for Tier 1-3. Studies which are not included in the leaderboard (e.g. https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/1945905796904005720) will not be considered. The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $2K
- Total Volume
- $32K
- 24h Volume
- $10
- Open Interest
- $5K
Market outcomes
| 45%+ | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 50%+ | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 60%+ | 36% YES | 65% NO |
| 70%+ | 4% YES | 96% NO |
Market context
OpenAI's GPT models will be tested against the FrontierMath benchmark, a rigorous examination of mathematical problem-solving capability developed by Epoch AI. The market resolves positively if any GPT variant achieves a specified score threshold on Tier 1–3 problems by 28 February 2026. Resolution hinges on official publication to Epoch AI's leaderboard; independent studies fall outside scope. The settlement window extends to 30 June 2026, providing a four-month buffer after the resolution deadline.
The 100% implied probability reflects confidence grounded in recent capability trajectories. GPT-4 and subsequent releases have demonstrated substantial gains on mathematical reasoning tasks, with each major iteration closing gaps on standardised benchmarks. The current crowd pricing suggests traders view the score threshold as achievable given OpenAI's documented development pace and the benchmark's design as a measurement tool rather than an insurmountable barrier. Comparable mathematical benchmarks—MATH, AMC, AIME—have seen steady model improvement over successive releases.
Key catalysts centre on OpenAI's release schedule and Epoch AI's leaderboard updates. Any GPT model announcement between now and late February 2026 could trigger immediate market movement, particularly if accompanied by benchmark results. Traders should monitor Epoch AI's official leaderboard for new submissions and track OpenAI's technical reports for performance claims. The current order book pricing at certainty suggests limited downside risk is being priced in; movement would likely occur upon concrete benchmark results rather than speculative announcements.
Wikipedia Context
-
GPT-5.5GPT-5.5 is a large language model (LLM) released by OpenAI on April 23, 2026. The model is also known by its codename "Spud".
-
GPT-5.2GPT-5.2 is a large language model by OpenAI, released on December 11, 2025. Succeeding GPT-5.1, it is a family of three large language models within the GPT series. It comes in three modes: GPT-5.2 instant, GPT-5.2 thinking, and GPT-5.2 Pro, with the latter two being reasoning models. GPT-5.2 Pro takes more reasoning time and compute than GPT-5.2 thinking. O
-
GPT-4.1GPT-4.1 is a large language model within OpenAI's GPT series. It was released on April 14, 2025. GPT-4.1 can be accessed through the OpenAI API or the OpenAI Developer Playground. Three different models were simultaneously released: GPT-4.1, GPT-4.1 mini, and GPT-4.1 nano. Since May 14, GPT-4.1 has been available for users subscribed to the ChatGPT Plus and
-
OpenAI Operator
OpenAI Operator was an AI agent developed by OpenAI, capable of autonomously performing tasks through web browser interactions, including filling forms, placing online orders, scheduling appointments, and other repetitive browser-based tasks. It uses OpenAI's advanced models to expand practical automation capabilities for users in daily activities.
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "OpenAI GPT score on FrontierMath Benchmark by June 30?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$32K in lifetime turnover and $2K of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for chatgpt contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $10 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 3 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "OpenAI GPT score on FrontierMath Benchmark by June 30?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Related prediction markets
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: