Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if any song by the listed artist is in the #1 spot on the Spotify Top 50 - USA chart for any day of the relevant month, ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only primary artist profiles will qualify; features or collaborations under another artist profile will not qualify to resolve the featured artist to "Yes". The resolution source for this market will be Spotify, specifically the Spotify Top 50 - USA chart, which can be found here: https://open.spotify.com/playlist/37i9dQZEVXbLRQDuF5jeBp.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Taylor Swift | 97% YES | 3% NO |
| Olivia Rodrigo | 90% YES | 10% NO |
| Gracie Abrams | 23% YES | 77% NO |
| Ariana Grande | 30% YES | 70% NO |
| Kanye West | 6% YES | 94% NO |
| Drake | 60% YES | 41% NO |
| Olivia Dean | 7% YES | 93% NO |
| The Weeknd | 8% YES | 92% NO |
The question centres on whether any of a specified roster of artists will occupy the number one position on Spotify's Top 50 – USA chart for at least one day during June 2026. The resolution mechanism is straightforward: primary artist profiles only, excluding features or collaborations under another artist's name. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 97% implied probability of "Yes," suggesting traders assess it as highly likely that at least one artist from the listed group will reach the top spot during that month.
Historical precedent supports this assessment. Since Spotify's Top 50 – USA chart began tracking, the number one position has cycled through releases with regularity tied to album drops, promotional campaigns, and streaming momentum. Major label artists—particularly those with established fanbases—have demonstrated consistent ability to reach number one within any given month. The 97% probability implies traders view the listed artists as collectively strong enough that at least one will achieve this threshold, a reasonable inference given typical release schedules and competitive dynamics in the streaming landscape.
Traders monitoring this market should track announcement calendars for album releases, single drops, and promotional pushes from the relevant artists during May and June 2026. Chart performance depends heavily on release timing; a major drop in late May could carry momentum into June, whilst mid-month releases face compressed windows. Additionally, external factors—competing releases from unlisted artists, viral trends, or shifts in listener behaviour—could influence which artist reaches number one. The current 97% probability leaves limited upside for "Yes" positions but reflects genuine uncertainty about whether the specific artists listed will achieve the milestone versus other market participants.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Which artists will have #1 hits in the US in June?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$4K in lifetime turnover and $19K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for celebrities contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $1K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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