Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the name ranked #1 on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index on December 31, 2026, 5:30 PM ET. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/). If the data for the specified date is not released by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List will be used (https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#6aa3f0213d78). If neither source provides the specified date's data by January 2, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the latest data point available on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.
Corporate-action markets price events tracked closely by Wall Street: earnings beats, M&A timelines, executive moves, regulatory filings. Current odds favour the YES side at 97%, making this a high-confidence market with 78 days to resolution - long enough that information asymmetry can still move the line meaningfully, backed by $210K of resting liquidity.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake - winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Elon Musk | 97% YES | 3% NO |
| Larry Ellison | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Mark Zuckerberg | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Bernard Arnault | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Jeff Bezos | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| Jensen Huang | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Warren Buffett | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| Steve Ballmer | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Richest person on December 31, 2026?. The market is currently pricing the outcome at 97% YES, meaning crowd-implied probability sits at that level. Settlement is scheduled for 2027-01-03T04:59:00Z. Unlike a sportsbook, the price you see is set by buyers and sellers competing in a live order book — there is no house edge or bookmaker margin to fade.
Business outcome markets cover discrete corporate events: earnings beats, M&A closing dates, regulatory approvals. They reward traders who connect public filings with timing the market hasn't priced in.
Watch for the underlying catalysts that move this category: each official announcement, dataset release, or scheduled milestone generally produces a step change in the implied probability. Trades execute instantly on Polygon, and shares pay $1 each at resolution if your side wins.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
For this market, the resolution date is 3 January 2027. A UMA proposer can submit the outcome from that moment; the two-hour dispute window closes at , and assuming no counter-claim is staked, winning USDC clears to trader balances by approximately .
If a dispute is filed inside the two-hour window, the outcome escalates to UMA token-holder voting, which extends settlement by roughly 48 hours. Because this market resolves from a publicly verifiable feed (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/), the probability of dispute is materially lower than the overall 0.5% PolyGram baseline - most disputes occur on markets with ambiguous wording or non-public resolution sources.
Corporate-action markets resolve from official filings or press releases - payouts typically clear the same business day the resolution event is published, with overnight delays only for events that announce outside US market hours. Funds clear directly to your in-app USDC balance on Polygon. Withdrawals are non-custodial: send to any address you control, typical confirmation under 30 seconds, gas paid in USDC if you'd rather not hold MATIC.
Minimum order size on PolyGram is $1.00, with no maximum cap aside from available book depth. Orders route into Polymarket's on-chain CLOB on Polygon; the matching engine pairs YES buyers with NO buyers atomically - every executed trade is settled on-chain with no counterparty risk. For "Richest person on December 31, 2026?", corporate-action markets tighten before earnings or filing deadlines and widen back out once the catalyst clears.
The trade ticket includes a slippage box (default 2%, configurable 0.1%-10%) that caps the worst-case entry price. Your maximum loss is your stake - winning YES (or NO) shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. With this market's current book depth ($210K of resting liquidity), a $500 order should fill with single-cent slippage at the displayed mid-price.
PolyGram charges 0% house edge - no spread mark-up, no rake on winnings, no withdrawal fees beyond network gas. The platform earns exclusively from optional features (copy-trade boosts, advanced order types, the yield vault on idle USDC); the trading surface itself is at-cost.
The mechanics for trading "Richest person on December 31, 2026?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$1.9M in lifetime turnover and $210K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for business contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional - among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $2K in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 11 months - long enough that the order book is mature and price is well-anchored to fundamentals.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery - meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 3 January 2027. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake - there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon - a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition - historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose. For "Richest person on December 31, 2026?", the considerations above apply directly - Corporate-action markets can be moved sharply by SEC filings or unscheduled press releases - set price alerts and consider limit orders rather than market orders, especially around earnings windows.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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