Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if a marketwide circuit breaker is triggered on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) at any time between November 7, 2025, and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A marketwide circuit breaker is defined as a trading halt that is initiated due to significant declines in the S&P 500 Index, specifically a Level 1, Level 2, or Level 3 halt as per NYSE rules. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the NYSE, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027? | 23% YES | 77% NO |
The NYSE operates three levels of automatic trading halts triggered by declines in the S&P 500 Index. A Level 1 halt occurs at a 7% decline, Level 2 at 13%, and Level 3 at 20%, each halting trading for 15 minutes (or until 3:25 p.m., whichever comes first). The market is pricing a 23% probability that at least one such halt will occur between November 2025 and year-end 2026.
Historical context shows these halts remain rare events. The most recent Level 1 halt occurred on 16 March 2020 during the initial COVID-19 market shock, with Level 3 halts triggered on 9 March and 12 March that same month. Prior to 2020, the previous circuit breaker activation dated to 27 October 1997. Over the past five years of relative stability, no halts have been triggered despite periodic volatility spikes. This historical scarcity—roughly one significant event per decade or longer—underpins the current sub-25% probability assessment on Polymarket's order book.
Traders monitoring this market should track macroeconomic data releases, Federal Reserve policy signals, and geopolitical developments that could precipitate sharp equity selloffs. Key watch points include quarterly earnings seasons, inflation reports, and any sudden shifts in interest rate expectations. The 13-month settlement window captures two full calendar years of trading, increasing the probability window compared to shorter-dated contracts. Current positioning reflects expectations that whilst volatility will persist, a 20%+ single-day decline remains an outlier scenario under base-case economic forecasts.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$52K in lifetime turnover and $4K of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for business contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $159 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 6 months — long enough that the order book is mature and price is well-anchored to fundamentals.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 23%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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