Resolution criteria on PolyGram: The 2026 Brazil presidential election is currently scheduled to be held on October 4, 2026. Political parties must file candidate registration applications with the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) for the 2026 Brazil presidential election by August 15, 2026, 7:00 PM Brasília time (UTC−03:00). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Workers’ Party (Partido dos Trabalhadores, PT) files a candidate registration application nominating Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva for President of Brazil by August 15, 2026, 7:00 PM Brasília time (UTC−03:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15? | 84% YES | 16% NO |
Brazil's Workers' Party must formally register its presidential candidate with the Superior Electoral Court by 15 August 2026 at 19:00 Brasília time for the October general election. The question centres on whether that nominee will be Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, the incumbent president who won the 2022 election and has governed since January 2023. The current Polymarket order book implies an 85% probability the PT files Lula's candidacy by the deadline.
Lula's renomination would follow the standard pattern for incumbent Brazilian presidents seeking re-election. The PT has controlled the presidency since 2003 with two Lula terms (2003–2010) and two Dilma Rousseff terms (2011–2016), before Lula's return in 2022. Constitutional term limits permit a sitting president one consecutive re-election, making Lula eligible for a third term. No sitting Brazilian president has declined re-nomination when constitutionally eligible in recent decades, establishing strong historical precedent for the current 85% implied probability.
Traders should monitor PT party conventions and internal announcements through mid-August, particularly any statements from Lula regarding health or political circumstances that might alter candidacy plans. Constitutional Court rulings on electoral eligibility could theoretically affect proceedings, though no current legal challenges to Lula's candidacy have gained traction. The TSE registration deadline itself is immovable, creating a hard settlement date. Recent reporting from major Brazilian outlets including Folha de S.Paulo and O Globo has treated Lula's re-election bid as procedurally certain, with coverage focused on campaign strategy rather than candidacy questions.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$10K in lifetime turnover and $13K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for brazil contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $637 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 84%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 15 August 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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