Resolution criteria on PolyGram: A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Real-money prediction markets aggregate live odds from thousands of traders, surfacing a sharper probability than any single forecast. Odds will populate live once the order book fills with 134 days to resolution, giving the order book ample time to absorb new information, backed by $7.7M of resting liquidity.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Tarcisio de Freitas | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | 46% YES | 55% NO |
| Jair Bolsonaro | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| Fernando Haddad | 5% YES | 95% NO |
| Michelle Bolsonaro | 3% YES | 97% NO |
| Eduardo Bolsonaro | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Ratinho Júnior | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Renan Santos | 12% YES | 88% NO |
Brazil will elect its next president on 4 October 2026, with a second round possible if no candidate wins outright. The market is currently pricing a 0% chance of a straightforward YES at this stage, so the order book is effectively treating the event as unresolved and leaving room for a wide range of outcomes over the campaign. On Polymarket, that implied probability is formed by live bids and offers: each new trade shifts the quoted price, and the market can move sharply as polling, endorsements, legal rulings or candidate exits alter expectations.
For context, Brazilian presidential contests often settle into a two-stage race, and first-round polling can overstate early favourites because runoff arithmetic matters as much as initial support. Lula is eligible to seek a fourth term and has already signalled his intention to run, while Flávio Bolsonaro has emerged as a prominent opposition figure in recent market and polling references. Historical comparators suggest traders should watch whether one candidate can consolidate a broad anti-incumbent bloc or whether the contest fragments enough to force a runoff, which would extend uncertainty into late October.
Key catalysts are likely to be formal candidacy announcements, coalition-building, poll releases, and any decisions from Brazil’s electoral authorities on eligibility or campaign rules. The AS/COA poll tracker notes the first round is scheduled for 4 October, and recent AtlasIntel polling provides a useful reference point for how quickly the field can shift as campaigns develop. In a market with a listed resolution based on official results if there is ambiguity, verified reporting from Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court is likely to matter most once voting closes.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
For this market, the resolution date is 4 October 2026. A UMA proposer can submit the outcome from that moment; the two-hour dispute window closes at , and assuming no counter-claim is staked, winning USDC clears to trader balances by approximately .
If a dispute is filed inside the two-hour window, the outcome escalates to UMA token-holder voting, which extends settlement by roughly 48 hours. This particular market has no public resolution feed listed; disputes here are more likely if the underlying outcome is subject to interpretation, in which case the UMA token-vote arbitrates the wording of the original market question.
Withdrawal pace from your PolyGram balance is non-custodial and immediate — once payout clears, funds are yours to send to any Polygon wallet you control. Funds clear directly to your in-app USDC balance on Polygon. Withdrawals are non-custodial: send to any address you control, typical confirmation under 30 seconds, gas paid in USDC if you'd rather not hold MATIC.
Minimum order size on PolyGram is $1.00, with no maximum cap aside from available book depth. Orders route into Polymarket's on-chain CLOB on Polygon; the matching engine pairs YES buyers with NO buyers atomically — every executed trade is settled on-chain with no counterparty risk. For "Brazil Presidential Election", order-book behaviour for this market reflects the underlying volatility of the outcome — patient limit orders typically fill closer to mid than market orders.
The trade ticket includes a slippage box (default 2%, configurable 0.1%-10%) that caps the worst-case entry price. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning YES (or NO) shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. With this market's current book depth ($7.7M of resting liquidity), a $500 order should fill with single-cent slippage at the displayed mid-price.
PolyGram charges 0% house edge — no spread mark-up, no rake on winnings, no withdrawal fees beyond network gas. The platform earns exclusively from optional features (copy-trade boosts, advanced order types, the yield vault on idle USDC); the trading surface itself is at-cost.
The mechanics for trading "Brazil Presidential Election" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$84.6M in lifetime turnover and $7.7M of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for brazil contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $932K in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 8 months — long enough that the order book is mature and price is well-anchored to fundamentals.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 4 October 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose. For "Brazil Presidential Election", the considerations above apply directly — Trade size should reflect the binary nature of the payoff: even a 70% probability event resolves NO 30% of the time, so any single position can lose 100% of staked capital.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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