Trade: Bahia Governor Election Winner
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $38K
- Total Volume
- $13K
- 24h Volume
- $39
- Open Interest
- $2K
Market outcomes
| Jerônimo Rodrigues | 53% YES | 48% NO |
| João Roma | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Kleber Rosa | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Bruno Soares Reis | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Placeholder 1 | — | |
| Placeholder 3 | — | |
| Placeholder 5 | — | |
| Placeholder 7 | — | |
Market context
Brazil's Bahia state will hold its gubernatorial election on 4 October 2026, with a potential runoff scheduled for 25 October if no candidate secures an outright majority in the first round. The state, Brazil's fifth most populous, has historically been a stronghold for centre-left and left-wing parties, though recent elections have demonstrated increasing competitiveness across the political spectrum. The current crowd-implied probability of 53% YES reflects genuine uncertainty about the eventual winner, with the order book pricing in multiple viable candidacies rather than consensus around a single frontrunner.
Bahia's electoral history provides context for reading this probability. The state elected Rui Costa (PT) in 2014 and 2018, but his successor Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) won in 2022 with 51.4% in the first round against fragmented opposition. That relatively narrow margin, combined with national political shifts and the state's growing demographic and economic diversity, suggests 2026 could produce a more competitive result than recent cycles. Comparable gubernatorial races in large Brazilian states have seen substantial polling volatility in the eighteen months preceding elections.
Key catalysts for traders include formal candidacy registrations (typically August 2026), campaign finance disclosures, and polling releases from major Brazilian research institutes. The settlement window extends to 30 June 2027, providing substantial time for official results confirmation, though the election itself concludes by late October 2026. Any significant shifts in national political dynamics or unexpected candidate withdrawals could materially alter the probability distribution currently reflected in Polymarket's order book.
Wikipedia Context
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Basra GovernorateThe Basra Governorate, also called Basra Province, is a governorate in southern Iraq bordering Kuwait to the south and Iran to the east. The capital is the city of Basra, located in the Basrah district. Other districts of Basra include Al-Qurna, Al-Zubair, Al-Midaina, Shatt Al-Arab, Abu Al-Khaseeb and Al-Faw located on the Persian Gulf. It is the only govern
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Balqa GovernorateBalqa' is one of the governorates of Jordan. It is located northwest of Amman, Jordan's capital.
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2009 Babil governorate election
The Babil governorate election of 2009 was held on 31 January 2009 alongside elections for all other governorates outside Iraqi Kurdistan and Kirkuk.
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2013 Babil governorate election
The Babil governorate election of 2013 was held on 20 April 2013 alongside elections for all other governorates outside Iraqi Kurdistan, Kirkuk, Anbar, and Nineveh.
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Bahia Governor Election Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$13K in lifetime turnover and $38K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for brazil contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.
Last 24 hours alone saw $39 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 4 October 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Bahia Governor Election Winner"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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